Indo-Pacific Security Watch

China deploys 100+ vessels post-Trump-Xi; US responds with Typhon missiles near China. Median line incursions and Liaoning drills continue; grey-zone ops raise 2027 risks. New Pratas Islands coast guard confrontations (May 2026) and Scarborough Shoal patrols timed with US-Philippine drills. On May 26, 24 PLA aircraft crossed median line (second-highest ADIZ violation this year). Hegseth at Shangri-La omitted Taiwan by name, demanded allies pay more, raising US commitment ambiguity. New analysis: China adapting drone swarm tactics for Taiwan, nuclear escalation risks, $30B undelivered US arms pipeline. Nvidia $150B annual investment deepens economic stakes. Taiwan premier calls China actions greatest instability source. Satellite images reveal massive new nuclear launchpads near Hami—fastest silo expansion ever. Jiang Xueqin analysis details 2027 non-kinetic coercion plan targeting undersea cables, LNG, and legal frameworks to force Taiwan's capitulation. Scarborough Shoal standoff continues with China patrols as 'countermeasure' to US-Philippine drills. China expelled a New York Times reporter over an interview with Taiwan's president, a new coercive tactic against media freedom. China patrols waters east of Taiwan in response to Japan-Philippines maritime border talks, signaling rejection of bilateral delimitation; Taiwan spotted two ships. Latest: Liaoning carrier group conducted 170 sorties east of Philippines; new Type 054B frigate Luohe deployed with Liaoning. Taiwan President Lai toured ammo factory, criticized $15B defense budget gap. US canceled $14B arms deal, Taiwan develops Hsuan-Chieh EW vehicle. Canada warship transited Taiwan Strait. US-China military talks in Hawaii held on maritime safety—positive but does not change coercion trajectory. New: China's 'monster' tank prototype raises invasion fears; Taiwan deploys robot patrol dogs to SCS islands for asymmetric monitoring. A Senate hearing (Rubio pressed by Coons) reinforces arms delivery uncertainty. A new analysis suggests potential shift in SCS leverage with US return to Subic Bay and quieting of Chinese patrols at Scarborough. Latest: Taiwan's $20B weapons backlog analysis highlights manufacturing constraints; Rubio reaffirms unchanged US Taiwan policy; IISS APRSA 2026 provides comprehensive assessment of US/China doctrines on Taiwan. New today: On June 2, 31 PLA aircraft were detected around Taiwan, with 22 crossing the median line—a significant surge reinforcing the established gray-zone coercion pattern. Nvidia's $150B annual investment in Taiwan remains a key economic stake. Taiwan's deployment of Ghost Robotics robot dogs on outposts confirms asymmetric defense innovation. New article: Taiwan plans to field 1,800+ anti-ship missiles by 2029, citing Ukraine and Iran as models for asymmetric deterrence, amid $14B arms sale uncertainty and Xi's warning. Also today: Satellite evidence reveals 350 new ICBM silos, over 100 armed—emergency-level nuclear buildup. Taiwan's Littoral Combat Command integrates anti-ship missiles and drones. China imposes travel ban on four New Zealand MPs for visiting Taiwan, expanding diplomatic coercion.