Macro Policy Insights

US natural gas ascendancy and the energy transition

US natural gas ascendancy and the energy transition

Key Questions

How has natural gas's share of US energy changed recently?

Natural gas is nearing petroleum's share of US primary energy due to fracking and electrification, rising from 20% to 47% over 75 years while coal fell from 41% to 10%. Total US energy production has tripled in that period.

What are current US crude oil production levels and forecasts?

US crude oil production hit a record 13.6 million barrels per day in 2025 and is forecast to reach 14.2 million b/d by 2027. This intersects with the data center energy boom and IEA gas price analyses.

How do renewables compare in the 75-year US energy visualization?

Renewables account for only 6.7% of US energy production despite growth, while natural gas has ascended significantly. Visualizations highlight coal's decline and crude oil's steady ~26% share.

EIA data shows natural gas nearing petroleum's share of US primary energy, driven by fracking and electrification. US crude oil production hit record 13.6 million b/d in 2025, forecast 14.2 million b/d by 2027. Blackout cost analysis adds regulatory dimension. New visualization of 75 years of US energy production: coal fell from 41% to 10%, natural gas rose to 47%, crude oil steady at ~26%, total production tripled, renewables only 6.7%. Intersects with data center boom. IEA mid-year update highlights gas price impact from Hormuz disruptions.

Sources (2)
Updated Jul 25, 2026