Oil, gas and macroeconomic shock from the war
Key Questions
How has the conflict affected oil prices?
Brent crude has been volatile, ranging from $93 to over $105, with peaks risking $150+. Dips occurred amid Pakistan talks, but risks from Hormuz closure persist.
What damage occurred to Iran's oil and gas facilities?
South Pars is operating at 85% capacity, Kharg Island at 90%, and Mobarakeh steel crippled by US-Israeli strikes. Total damages estimated at $270 billion.
What are the global impacts of potential Hormuz closure?
Strait of Hormuz handles 13 million bpd; closure could lead to 500 million+ barrels lost and spills. Gas prices exceed $4.11, risking 35+% recession odds.
How are Gulf states affected?
GCC nations face threats to Mina and Saudi facilities from Iranian retaliation warnings. EU gas prices up 60%, with IEA crisis and UN projecting 30 million in poverty.
Is Iran storing excess oil?
Iran is frantically moving to store overflowing oil supply at Kharg Island, signaling regime strain. This follows strikes on industrial sectors.
Brent remains highly volatile around $93–$105 per barrel as reports indicate constrained Iranian crude, gas and LNG flows and possible infrastructure damage. Patriot deployments near Saudi and Qatari energy assets reinforce concern about further supply disruption, although export volumes, reserve responses and the eventual economic impact remain uncertain.