Iran diplomacy and Trump’s ‘effectively over’ claim leave war and oil risks unresolved

Trump says the conflict is militarily “effectively over” and further strikes are unlikely, but continued attacks, shipping disruption, and the U.S. blockade mean hostilities are not confirmed ended. Araghchi’s reported two-day diplomacy ultimatum, Qatar’s positive-discussions signal, and a proposed Hormuz reopening tied to sanctions and frozen assets leave diplomacy and market risks unsettled.