Iran Conflict Risk Monitor

Key CFR podcasts highlight post-talks challenges and ally coordination issues:

• Failed US-Iran talks: What comes next?
• Allies not following:...

Key swings guiding energy positioning:

• Ceasefire/talk hopes plunge prices: WTI drops $7.80 to $91.28, after 16% fall last week then rebound above...

• Rachel Reeves is "very frustrated and angry" over US failure to have clear exit plan or objectives for Iran war
• US "went into this war without...

• Global growth slashed to 3.1% for 2026, but prolonged conflict drops it to 2%—a 'close call for recession'.
• Inflation surges: Up to 6% globally in...

Key timeline shifts post-Islamabad collapse:

• Failed weekend talks led by JD Vance yielded progress on nuclear flexibility but stalled on 20-year...

• Waiver termination: US lets 30-day Iran oil sanctions waiver expire April 19, blocking ~140 million barrels from markets after March 20 issuance to...

Key second/third-order effects reshaping geopolitics beyond energy:

• Iran hardens into garrison state: Mojtaba Khamenei installed as successor amid...

Escalation post-Islamabad failure threatens oil flows and shipping.

• Weekend talks collapse over Iran's nuclear refusal; Trump deploys navy to...

Leaders flock to Xi amid Middle East war: Russia FM Lavrov, Spain's Sanchez, UAE Crown Prince, Vietnam's To Lam seek Beijing talks.

• Mediator push:...

• 94% jump in Russian oil revenues to $508M/day in March, Urals crude at $120/bbl after Iran war spikes prices.
• Hormuz closure removes 20% global...

US political scrutiny intensifies on energy security as war with Iran drags on:

• Inadequate planning alleged: Top Senate Energy Dem Sen. Heinrich...

The Iran war's Strait of Hormuz closure triggers massive supply shocks—12M bpd oil shortfalls—accelerating worldwide energy policy pivots for security...

Iran war slashes 10% of global crude supply, spiking Asian refined products like diesel and jet fuel (>$200/bbl in Singapore).

• Philippines, doubly...

Gulf retail markets diverge sharply amid Iran conflict disruptions:

• Saudi Arabia's domestic engine powers through: Cenomi Centers saw double-digit...

• Hormuz escalation: Iran limits and raises costs for ships from US-sanction-backing countries; prediction markets see low odds (6% by Apr 15) for...

Iran's 'escalate to de-escalate' strategy targets oil infrastructure and allies, betting regional pain pressures Trump to end war. But history shows...

Key blockers in deadlocked talks:

• Nuclear gap: US demands 20-year uranium enrichment ban; Iran offers ~5 years, tying issue to Hormuz control.
• US...

Massive unresolved questions surround US sanctions after Iran war ceasefire, slamming business compliance:

• US may not authorize banks to process...

Key risks for investors:

• China's industries in acute strain: Disrupted Middle East oil (1/3 supply), gas, chemicals; polyethylenes doubled, carbon...

Key compliance threats for maritime firms using crypto:

• Iran-linked transit fees via crypto treated as material support under sanctions, risking...