Iran Conflict Risk Monitor

Draft Deal Terms

• 🔥 Hormuz-Sanctions Link: Draft US-Iran deal reports state the Strait of Hormuz would fully reopen in exchange for sanctions...

Public signals from Rubio and Trump suggest momentum on a Hormuz-nuclear framework, yet drafts and officials reveal major gaps persist.

• Rubio cites...

• Negotiations progress toward lifting sanctions to let Iran sell oil and reopen Hormuz in exchange for ending the blockade
• Enforcement continues...

Operation Economic Fury has produced 10 SDN List updates in under five weeks, rendering prior screenings obsolete almost immediately.

• Stale...

The 2018 U.S. JCPOA exit shows how sanctions can reshape energy flows and negotiations.

• Oil export collapse: Sanctions slashed Iranian crude...

US escalation against Iran triggers compliance requirements that ripple through international banking and trade, affecting companies well beyond the energy sector.

Ceasefire Extension and Hormuz Negotiations

• 🔥 Trump Agreement Claim: Trump stated an agreement with Iran and regional powers has been largely...

• US weighs strategy reassessment after strikes failed to curb Iran's nuclear program or Hormuz control.
• Israeli official admits Iran emerged...

US-Iran talks advanced rapidly this weekend, moving from optimistic signals of a near-deal to reports of a likely 60-day truce extension.

May 23...

Stark contradictions emerge on ceasefire status and core concessions.

• US officials report a near-final 60-day MoU with Hormuz reopening via mine...

Diplomatic Sticking Points

• Ceasefire Prerequisite: Iran stated a ceasefire on all fronts is required before any future US negotiations, with no...

• OFAC sanctions hit 19 Iranian oil tankers plus financial networks, shifting to predictive enforcement against shadow fleets.
• Persian Gulf Strait...

Modest diplomatic momentum emerged this week with Pakistani and Qatari mediation in Tehran, yet both sides stressed no breakthrough is imminent.

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• Rejection stance: Iran firmly rejects US demands to hand over enriched uranium, calling them non-starters.
• Conditional offer: Reports link...

Iran’s UN envoy accused Persian Gulf neighbors and Jordan of providing bases, logistics, intelligence, and air-defense support for US operations, declaring them liable for full material and moral damages under international law.

Secretary Rubio detailed a collaborative military Plan B with European partners, including minesweepers, if Iran refuses to reopen the Strait of...

US DOJ investigation into over $1 billion in Iran-linked flows through Binance raises doubts about the effectiveness of its $4.3 billion monitorship...

Nuclear Talks and Iranian Positions

• 🔥 Uranium Stockpile Directive: Iran’s Supreme Leader ordered that near-weapons-grade enriched uranium must...

Iran’s Supreme Leader has directed that near-weapons-grade uranium must stay inside the country, directly blocking a core US demand in nuclear...

Diplomatic advances in US-Iran nuclear talks are easing geopolitical risk premiums, triggering sharp relief in oil markets and volatility.

• Oil...