Iraq’s militia settlement and Kurdistan attacks threaten the U.S. transition

The planned September 30 milestone for ending the coalition mission coincides with Iraqi debate over disarming Iran-aligned militias and reported Iranian attacks near Erbil and U.S. coalition infrastructure. Factional divisions in Baghdad, the PMF’s ambiguous institutional status and Kataib Hezbollah’s influence could allow armed groups to resist or evade disarmament. Iran’s reported preemptive military doctrine adds risk that Iraqi Kurdistan becomes a broader escalation front.