****************Financials: Q4 earnings preview amid turnaround scrutiny/Luckin threat [climaxing]**** [climaxing]** [climaxing]** [climaxing]** [climaxing]** [climaxing]** [climaxing]** [climaxing]
Key Questions
What are the expected Q4 earnings figures for Starbucks?
Analysts expect Q4 EPS of $0.55, a 31% drop year-over-year, and revenue of $9.34 billion, up 2.6%. US same-store sales are projected flat while China SSS grows 2.2%, with full-year figures showing declines.
What are the details of the Starbucks-Boyu joint venture in China?
Starbucks finalized a JV with Boyu Capital, where Boyu holds 60% stake valued at $4B enterprise value, and Starbucks retains 40% with IP rights. China Q1 sales reached $823M, up 11% YoY, with plans for 8-20k stores.
How did Starbucks perform in Q1?
Q1 revenue was $9.92B, up 6%, with SSS +4% and positive US comparable transactions. However, EPS missed at $0.56, margins fell 180bps, and net income dropped 62%, leading to a forward PE of 39x.
What is the current stock performance and analyst outlook for Starbucks?
Starbucks stock closed at $94.83, up 3.44% on Apr 10 and 4.88% on Apr 7. Guggenheim rates Neutral at $95, consensus PT $101; DB is bullish amid QV/SG/Vanguard buys and Mitsubishi trim.
Who are the main competitive threats to Starbucks?
Luckin Coffee poses a pricing war threat in China, potentially squeezing JV margins toward the 20,000-store goal. Dutch Bros reported +29% revenue and +9.7% SSS, with 73% loyalty penetration.
What is Starbucks' short interest position?
Starbucks has 47 million shares shorted. Recent institutional activity includes Vest Financial buying 5,596 shares and Albion Financial selling 18,033 shares.
What expansion and cost-saving initiatives is Starbucks pursuing?
Tied to $2B cost cuts, including PSL pricing resilience, Rewards float, and potential franchising. CEO Niccol is bullish on China JV outcomes.
What new product is Starbucks launching in China?
Starbucks China rolled out a high-protein latte line nationwide, featuring 20g protein per serving to tap into health trends.
Q4 preview: EPS $0.55 exp (31% drop), rev $9.34B +2.6%, US SSS flat/China +2.2%, FY drops; Boyu JV finalized (60% Boyu $4B EV/40% SBUX IP/China Q1 $823M +11% YoY/8-20k stores/Niccol bullish); Q1 $9.92B +6%/SSS +4%/US comp trans +/EPS $0.56 miss/margins -180bps/net -62%/fwd PE 39x; stock $94.83 (+3.44% Apr10/+4.88% Apr7); Dutch Bros +29% rev/+9.7% SSS/loyalty 73%; short 47M; Guggenheim $95 Neutral; cons PT $101; DB bull; QV/SG/Vanguard buys/Mitsubishi trim; Luckin/Dutch Bros risks; ties to $2B cuts/PSL; Rewards float/franchise/pricing resilience; China protein latte launch.