2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Suppressed by El Niño
Key Questions
What is the prediction for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
Multiple forecasts from CSU, Guy Carpenter, and Munich Re predict below-normal activity due to strong El Niño shear. However, Swiss Re notes that landfall and secondary peril risks remain high. The NOAA official outlook is due soon, with warmer sea surface temperatures as a potential wildcard.
How might El Niño affect tropical storms on US coasts?
A forecaster warns that U.S. coastlines could face "impactful” tropical storms earlier in the season due to Super El Niño. This could lead to risks even in a suppressed season.
What does research say about future Atlantic hurricane seasons?
Scientists expect dramatic swings between active and inactive hurricane seasons in the future. The risk of more destructive eras is increasing due to climate factors.
Multiple forecasts (CSU, Guy Carpenter, Munich Re) predict below-normal activity with strong El Niño shear, though landfall and secondary peril risks remain high per Swiss Re. NOAA official outlook due soon; warmer SSTs noted as wildcard.