North American Supply Expansion: EGA Smelter and Tariff Impact
Key Questions
What is the significance of EGA's planned US smelter?
EGA's $4B, 750kt US smelter would double domestic primary aluminium capacity, addressing tariff-driven import dependence and tight global markets in a transformative structural shift.
How do US tariffs influence North American aluminium supply dynamics?
Tariffs have reduced imports (Canada -25% YoY), leaving total US supply at its lowest since 2018, while new capacity like EGA and Century is not expected until the late 2020s.
What role will recycling play in bridging North American supply gaps?
Recycling expansions of 600kt+ by 2030, combined with rising demand from solar and AI sectors, are expected to help address the gap until new smelter capacity comes online.
EGA's $4B US smelter (750kt) doubles domestic capacity, a transformative structural shift in North American supply. Combined with Century, it addresses tariff-driven import dependence and tight global markets. US tariffs are cutting imports (Canada -25% YoY), leaving total US supply at lowest since 2018, while demand is set to rise 40% over next decade. New capacity won't arrive until late 2020s, raising questions about bridging the gap. Recycling expansions (600kt+ by 2030) and demand from solar/AI add to the narrative.