EU Policy and Transatlantic Trade Dynamics
Key Questions
What are the key terms of the provisional EU-US tariff deal?
The deal includes safeguards and expires in 2029, with US tariffs set to reduce to 15% by end-2026. It follows April 2026 Section 232 measures introducing tiered tariffs.
How have US tariffs affected Canadian aluminum imports?
Canadian imports to the US dropped 29% after 50% tariffs and 25% YoY overall, reaching the lowest total US supply since 2018. Canada has diverted metal to Europe, with Quebec's export share surging from 0.2% to 18% in one quarter.
What expansion is planned for the EU's CBAM carbon tariff?
EU states have agreed to apply CO2 tariffs to more products, extending CBAM to processed goods like washing machines and broadening costs beyond primary aluminum.
Provisional EU-US tariff deal with safeguards and 2029 expiry; US to reduce tariffs to 15% by end-2026. US tariffs cut imports sharply: Canada -25% YoY, total US supply at lowest since 2018. Canadian imports dropped 29% post-50% tariff; power constraints bottleneck US smelter revival. Canada diverts metal to Europe (54% of US imports Q1, down from 75% in 2024). Quebec's export share to Europe surged from 0.2% to 18% in one quarter. Rio Tinto's Quebec expansion (AP60, 160kt low-carbon) began commissioning. EU ETS revision critical; European Aluminium pushes for safeguards. CBAM disrupts EU recycled supply chains. FutuRaM shows Europe's waste could supply over half of critical material demand by 2050. April 2026 Section 232 proclamation introduces tiered tariff architecture. Global aluminium associations call for common tariffs and scrap export restrictions. UK sector priorities highlighted at House of Lords. UK scrap exports up 43% since 2016. Trump threatens Canada with new tariffs over forced labour. New: EU states agreed to apply CO2 tariff to more products, expanding CBAM to processed goods like washing machines—broadening carbon cost burden beyond primary aluminium.