Gulf/Middle East Supply Disruptions
Key Questions
What is causing the recent drop in Gulf aluminium output?
The Iran conflict has driven Gulf aluminium output to decade lows, with April daily global output falling to 197.4kt, a 5.3% decline. This supply disruption is prompting ongoing supply chain reconfiguration.
How are aluminium prices expected to respond to the Middle East supply crisis?
UBS forecasts prices will remain above $3,000 per tonne over the next one to two years. Citi warns of one of the most severe aluminum supply shocks in modern times, projecting averages of $4,000 per tonne in H2 2026.
What are the broader impacts of these supply disruptions on global markets?
The disruptions are significantly affecting global trade flows to Japan, the US, and raising green energy costs in Asia. The situation remains developing with continued adjustments in supply chains.
Iran conflict drives Gulf aluminium output to decade lows (April daily global output 197.4kt, -5.3%). Major impact on global trade flows to Japan/US and Asia green energy costs. Status: developing with ongoing supply chain reconfiguration.