India Macro Impact Desk

Key Fed signals amid ME risks:

• Global what: Fed holds rates at 3.5-3.75% with four dissenters; Williams flags Iran war supply disruptions as...

Trend alert: ME re-escalation—in Persian Gulf and indefinite US-Israeli war on Iran—pushes oil/gas prices higher as markets reprice prolonged supply...

US-China trade war 2.0 intensifies, catching India, Mexico, Germany, France, Japan, South Korea in crossfire.

• Supply chain shifts and air cargo...

• Global divergence: US, EU, China lead with contrasting AI strategies, driving cross-border compliance and tax debates for AI activities.
• India's...

At InfraAI Global Summit 2026, power availability emerged as the primary constraint on AI data center buildout, dictating site selection, investments,...

• What happened: US trade deficit rose 4.4% to $60.3B in March; imports (AI computers, vehicles) outpaced exports (energy +25%, ag +8%), YTD down...

Bond markets signal Fed rate hike risks: Derivatives price >50% probability of a hike by April 2027, ahead of cuts.

• Strategic significance:...

Semicon supply shifts open doors for India's PLI and tech FDI amid global shortages:

• Global trigger: Apple in talks with Samsung/Intel as TSMC...

Global development: AI/digitization elevates data flows as key cross-border challenge alongside capital, with federated platforms keeping data local...

West Asia tensions spike oil prices, exposing India's import vulnerability and signaling urgent energy diversification for corporates.

Key...

China's property crash as cautionary tale for India Inc:

• Global event: Deepest downturn with inflation-adjusted prices at 2005 levels post 23-25%...

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