India Macro Impact Desk

US Rate Outlook

• 🔥 Fed Signals Extended Pause: The Federal Reserve maintained its federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% and signaled a...

The UK-India trade deal receives a firm 15 July implementation date, with the DBT explicitly flagging whiskey, cosmetics and automotives as sectors...

• Paper flags supply chain/third-party exposure and heightened systemic risk as core vulnerabilities in rapidly digitalising developing markets.
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Rapid tariff shifts are outpacing compliance reviews, directly elevating sanctions exposure, denied-party violations, and export-control failures for...

Global enterprises face AI ROI pushback as budgets are exhausted early and licenses scaled back. Indian IT firms countered with $5.5 billion across 19...

Fed holds rates at 3.5-3.75% for sixth month, signaling extended pause into 2026.

• Capital flows: Steady US rates sustain carry trades, likely...

• ₹37,000 crore FPI inflows hit Indian government bonds in June after tax exemptions and reforms, signaling sustained foreign demand.
• Lower yields...

India-EU Trade Momentum

• 🔥 EU-India FTA Timeline: EU Commission President stated the free trade agreement with India will be formally signed by...

EU Parliament's approval of the tariff-free trade deal with the US aims to eliminate tariffs following the 2025 Joint Statement, strengthening bilateral economic integration with broader implications for global trade competitiveness.

Kevin Warsh's debut FOMC meeting highlights a likely break from prior Fed chairs, with skepticism toward QE and balance sheet expansion.

• Policy...

Reliance and Jio's planned Rs 10 lakh crore investment over seven years for AI transformation will accelerate India's data centre buildout and reshape...

At the G7 summit, the EU confirmed it will sign a landmark FTA with India by year-end, while Canada signaled renewed push for a bilateral deal.

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The US decision on refined copper import tariffs due by 30 June could widen COMEX-LME spreads and lift global benchmarks as stockpiling tightens non-US supply, with LME prices already resilient near record highs amid the uncertainty.

Tariff Lock-In Effects

• 🔥 Section 301 Tariffs Upheld: US Supreme Court denied review of China Section 301 tariff challenge on June 15, locking...

• Rate hold locked in: Markets price 96% probability of holding at 3.50%-3.75%, with Warsh's debut FOMC marking a shift from Powell-era flexibility.
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• Record deal: Sarvam raised $234M Series B at $1.5B valuation led by HCLTech, highest Indian Series B ever.
• Strategic trigger: Anthropic's Fable 5...

• Legal certainty locked: Supreme Court denial ends all appeals on Section 301 tariffs, dismissing 3,500+ CIT cases and confirming USTR authority over...

RBI's FCNR deposit push offers short-term currency relief against global volatility and US Fed shifts, yet fails to tackle structural current account...

The Fed's June 17 decision is expected to hold rates steady with 96-98% probability after May inflation hit 4.2%, shifting sentiment from rate-cut hopes to hike fears and placing AI stocks on edge.

US tariffs tied to Russian oil imports are creating fresh compliance and trade risks for Indian energy and shipping firms.

• Energy and cross-border...