Policy & regulatory shifts: Warsh regime, Fed independence, rate hike odds, geopolitical oil shock, debt ceiling standoff

Warsh's quiet overhaul removes forward guidance and creates task forces, signaling regime change. July CPI shows disinflation (Sahm/Rosenberg) but three Fed hawks dissent (Hammack). Retail sales drop reduces September hike odds to 30.6%, but oil surge and internal division keep risk alive. Joint US-Japan yen intervention highlights carry unwind risks. New: GOP bills tie debt ceiling increase to spending cuts, hardening fiscal brinkmanship; debt at $39.9T, Fitch flags mid-2027 trigger. Fed minutes reveal continued division.