Semis supply tightens with TSMC/ASML/Samsung boom
Key Questions
What is the projected semiconductor market size for 2026?
The global semiconductor market is expected to reach $1T in 2026 per SIA, driven by AI demand. This represents a sharp surge led by AI chips. Supply tightness persists to 2030 due to HBM bottlenecks.
How did Samsung perform in Q1 2026?
Samsung reported 8x profit growth to $38B in Q1 2026, with HBM up 64% QoQ and 2x YoY. It plans $73B capex for HBM4. AI chip demand fueled record quarterly profits.
What are TSMC's revenue projections?
TSMC achieved 38% growth in 2025 with $165B revenue, amid booming demand. Capacity constraints, especially 3nm, create bottlenecks for Nvidia's next-gen chips. Plans include 12 fabs in Arizona.
What drives ASML's growth in 2026?
ASML is projected for €42B revenue in 2026 from EUV sales, critical for advanced semis. Wall Street sees it as just starting a $40B surge. AI demand fuels the equipment giant.
How is Micron positioned in the HBM market?
Micron hit record revenue, EPS up 200%/600%, and $24B FCF FY26, with HBM sold out. It is a critical AI enabler alongside Broadcom. Demand surge drives semis revenues.
What are Broadcom's AI revenue figures?
Broadcom reported $8.4B AI revenue, +106% YoY, with $8B FCF. It benefits from accelerating data center growth. Positioned as key AI infrastructure player.
What is China's AI compute capacity?
China has 2.8M H100e equivalents amid US export controls. Special AI chip supply ends, tightening global semis. This impacts the AI race dynamics.
How are companies like TER and Astera Labs faring?
TER has 60-70% AI rev mix and +49% EPS from data center growth. Astera Labs hit Q1 $290M rev in $25B TAM, driven by Scorpio demand. Both ride AI semis boom.
$1T semis '26 (SIA); Samsung Q1 8x profit $38B (HBM +64% QoQ/2x YoY, $73B capex HBM4); TSMC 38% '25 ($165B rev); ASML €42B '26 EUV; Micron record rev/EPS/FCF 200%/600%/$24B FY26 HBM sold out; Broadcom $8.4B AI rev +106% YoY $8B FCF; Astera $25B TAM/Q1 $290M; TER 60-70% AI rev/+49% EPS; China 2.8M H100e; shortages to 2030.