Midterm Election Dynamics: GOP Headwinds, Democratic Optimism

Generic ballot D+6.4, Trump net approval -20.6. Crystal Ball: 20 toss-up House, 4 Senate toss-ups. 58 House retirements (62% GOP). Aug 11 primary results: Klobuchar wins MN governor primary, Bronin ousts Rep. Larson in CT-1, MN Senate race between Flanagan and Craig tight. Key primaries: Abdul El-Sayed wins Michigan Senate primary; Abbas Alawieh wins state Senate primary. AIPAC spent $30M.