Washington Market Pulse

Manufacturing Activity Surge

• 🔥 Four-Year High PMI: U.S. manufacturing activity strengthened in May to the highest level in four years according...

US adults overall maintained stable financial situations in 2025, yet well-being declined for young adults, low-income families, and Black adults....

Diplomatic progress on US-Iran talks is easing Middle East supply fears, sending crude tumbling more than 5% and lifting gold and silver prices.

At...

• Pantheon Macro forecasts the first 25bp Fed rate cut only in December 2026, later than current market pricing.
• Atlanta Fed survey reveals firms...

AI investment is fueling digital infrastructure demand and reshaping the US construction sector amid broader megatrends like geopolitical tensions, the energy transition, and demographic pressures.

The US federal budget deficit is projected at $2 trillion this fiscal year, exceeding 6% of GDP. Crypto markets are watching closely for implications on fiscal sustainability and potential investment opportunities.

Trump's overall approval has fallen to 41% with economy handling at a new low, as 76% of voters now view the economy negatively amid rising costs for...

US manufacturing activity surged to a four-year high in May, with the S&P Global flash PMI climbing to 55.3 from 54.5 in April—the strongest reading...

Iran Policy and Energy Market Pressures

• 🔥 Senate War Powers Vote: The Senate voted 50-47 to advance a war powers resolution requiring...

• Senate advanced war powers resolution 50-47, with Sen. Cassidy joining Paul, Collins and Murkowski to challenge Trump on Iran military involvement
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Kevin Warsh assumes the Fed chair amid board divisions, having already pushed arguments for lower rates and a willingness to embrace internal...

Central bank meetings reveal key tone changes with direct market implications.

• Fed and Bank of Canada: Clear shift in tone signals evolving rate...

Kevin Warsh's push to reduce the Fed balance sheet while cutting rates is set to steepen the yield curve and widen spreads.

• Sticky inflation...

• Crypto Access Directive: Executive order gives the Fed 120 days to open payment systems to crypto while directing streamlined fintech rules.
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President Trump's White House Picnic remarks unveiled new tax initiatives on tips, overtime pay, Social Security, and estate taxes for farmers and...

Surging dollar from synchronized bond market tremors across Washington, London and Tokyo is diverting capital needed to finance emerging market deficits, stabilize yields and support equities.

The House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee begins marking up its $580 billion, five-year surface transportation bill on May 21. This sets the stage for major federal funding flows into construction and materials sectors.

Congress risks 7% to 13% of new housing construction by targeting build-to-rent projects over a negligible market share concern. Fixing this Senate...

Energy Market Update

• 🔥 Oil Prices Drop: Oil prices fell after the US President postponed a planned military strike on Iran, easing supply...

Kevin Warsh assumes Fed leadership amid accelerating inflation that has pushed long-dated Treasury yields to their highest levels in nearly two...