Fed Econ Indicators

Kevin Warsh faces intense pressure at Jackson Hole to defend his restrained communications style after his July press conference triggered a sharp...

The July PCE release lands today as the Fed's top inflation metric ahead of Jackson Hole and the September FOMC decision.

• Headline PCE expected to...

Markets are bracing for July core PCE data today, expected at 3.3% year-over-year, before Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech on Friday.

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Senator Gallego and six Democrats are urging Fed Chair Warsh to preserve the FOMC's minimum of eight annual meetings, arguing that fewer sessions...

• Annual federal deficit approaches 6% of GDP, twice the typical manageable level
• Interest payments on debt have climbed to around 3% of GDP
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The dollar stayed pinned in its narrow weekly range as markets await July PCE inflation data, the Fed's preferred gauge that could shape rate expectations at this weekend's Jackson Hole symposium.

The 9-3 split on the federal funds rate reveals growing hawkish pressure within the Fed despite the unanimous hold on the discount rate at 3.75%. With...

US 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields dropped to 4.193% and 4.635% as oil prices tumbled more than 3% on de-escalation hopes in the Strait of Hormuz,...

Directors at four regional Fed banks voted to raise the emergency lending rate before the July FOMC meeting, showing the 9-3 hold decision was more...

Boston Fed President Susan Collins stated the Fed will need to raise rates soon unless new data confirms sustained disinflation, noting inflation has...

Gold held steady as markets await the July PCE report to gauge the Fed's rate path, following an unexpected drop in nonfarm payrolls. Traders now see...

• Kashkari signals possible rate hikes if inflation fails to improve, underscoring ongoing Fed debate on further tightening.
• FOMC held rates at...

Will Treasury buybacks actually cap rising yields?

• Official moves signal intent: Treasury officials indicated the $1 trillion General Account could...

This week packs three binary events into 48 hours that will frame the September FOMC decision.

• July PCE (Wednesday morning): Core expected at 3.3%...

Will Warsh use his Friday keynote to address surging Treasury yields and inflation risks, or stick to broad principles?

• Bond volatility spikes:...

Markets are pricing dollar weakness and crypto volatility ahead of this week's macro releases, while Fed officials signal calm on yields.

• DXY slips...

• Gold hits 3-month highs on softer dollar ahead of PCE data and Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, with a balanced tone seen as supportive for further...

Market assigns the highest probability (32%) to 50k–100k job gains in the August nonfarm payrolls report, with the 0–50k bucket next at 27.5%.

• Consumer confidence report Tuesday expected to show another decline in August after July's slip.
• PCE inflation release Wednesday remains the Fed's...

The Treasury's surprise doubling of long-term bond buybacks to at least $4 billion aims to suppress soaring 10- and 30-year yields amid sticky...