Northeast Asia four-way game: Trump transactional diplomacy, South Korea balancing, Japan's strategic autonomy

Expert analysis outlines the complex dynamics under Trump's transactional approach: US-NK dialogue, Wang Yi's visit to South Korea, Lee Jae-myung's push for OPCON return by 2030, and Japan's hedging. Trump's unilateral cancellation of ongoing US-ROK exercises, with South Korea not informed beforehand, directly undermines alliance trust. South Korea's attempt at a middle path risks being seen as unreliable, while Japan accelerates military autonomy. This framework complements the broader alliance erosion narrative. New analysis highlights the 'dual marginalization' risk for South Korea and the synchronization of US-NK, US-Japan, and US-ROK dynamics around APEC. Japan's cross-party delegation to China adds a diplomatic track to the hedging strategy.