US-Iran Maritime Escalation and Two-Chokepoint Spillover

The October 26 baseline remains 120 maritime incidents, 24 seafarer deaths, 54 Iranian oil-laden tankers, and flows near 60% of normal; no new reading confirms a change in shipping flows. Tehran’s reported conditional Hormuz reopening proposal remains unverified, with its terms unclear. Claims of large global fuel and GDP effects lack supporting methodology in the excerpts.