Iran Domestic Economy and Society Under War Strain

The war is deepening Iran's structural economic weaknesses. New data: 450k jobs lost, 600k industrial jobs shed. Inflation acts as a cost-transfer mechanism. Government welfare response risks fueling more inflation. Internal factional dynamics (IRGC-Vahidi vs Pezeshkian vs Paydari) continue. The regime's resilience is tested by economic pain and military costs. New: Iran explicitly targets civilian infrastructure in Israel and US energy facilities in response plan (Tasnim), indicating regime's willingness to escalate despite domestic strain. Analysis of Iran's overlapping power centers (Supreme Leader, IRGC, civilian government) underscores that any ceasefire would be fragile, as the IRGC retains autonomy and leverage over Hormuz. Background: Iran's post-Khamenei succession (Mojtaba Khamenei as Pasdaran-backed continuity figure) signals further securitization, challenging hopes of internal moderation.