Diplomatic Offramp & Hormuz Deal Prospects

An Iran-Oman framework for reopening the Strait of Hormuz was agreed but fell through due to last-minute IRGC demands and mutual blame. Trump denied any US-Iran deal but signals willingness to accept Iran-Oman joint control. Prediction market odds for a deal by Aug 15 dropped from 64% to 39.5% and further to 27.5%; odds for normalization by Aug 31 fell to 9.5%. Iran's deputy FM signals openness to renewed Gulf security talks. Oman publicly urges Iran to halt attacks, signaling frustration. A new Saudi-Turkey-Pakistan defense pact is emerging as a regional realignment. Mossad fired two senior officials over a failed Iran regime change plan. Iran says a deal is 'very close' but conditions remain. General Caine seeks off-ramp.