Iran-Gulf and Red Sea Maritime Crisis

Hormuz shipping has deteriorated sharply: visible commodity-vessel transits reportedly fell to seven or eight, crude flows to roughly 74% of pre-war levels in one estimate, and at least 12 tanker attacks or attempted attacks were reported from September 28 to October 5. The October 6 On Peace attack reportedly injured 12 crew members, while gunfire against the Chinese-operated CUL Klang near Bab el-Mandeb caused no reported injuries; attribution remains unresolved. Crude and LNG workarounds have resumed some flows without restoring normal navigation, insurance, refined-product traffic, or crew safety. Operation Aspides remains below its stated requirement, with about six ships available against a need for more than ten.