Autonomy: FSD, robotaxi, Optimus scrutiny ramps
Key Questions
What is the latest on Tesla Cybercab production?
Dozens of mirrorless Cybercabs have been spotted at Giga Texas and Del Valle, signaling possible production start. Production is reportedly underway for the robotaxi.
When is driverless Model Y service expected in Austin?
Driverless Model Y operations are planned for Austin in June, with 10-20 vehicles on TCP. This follows robotaxi plans in Phoenix (2.5k vehicles) and CA with CPUC L2 approval.
What updates are there on FSD software?
FSD v14.3 employee beta is expected late April. Dutch RDW approved FSD Supervised for highways and cities in the Netherlands, with EU rollout potential this summer; NHTSA probe on HW6 is nearing closure.
What is the status of Tesla Optimus Gen3?
Optimus Gen3 production is delayed past March 31, targeting $20-30k pricing and 1M units per year at Fremont. Analyst scrutiny continues on timelines.
What are analyst views on Tesla's autonomy prospects?
UBS upgraded Tesla stock but sees no meaningful robotaxi scaling soon. Ark targets $2k/share with optimism, contrasting bearish views from MS/Stifel/Baird, UBS, and GLJ.
Cybercab prod Giga TX/Del Valle (dozens spotted mirrorless); driverless Model Y Austin June (10-20/TCP); FSD v14.3 employee beta late Apr (Dutch RDW Supervised approval highways/cities/EU Netherlands summer, NHTSA probe close/HW6); Optimus Gen3 delay post-Mar31 ($20-30k/Fremont 1M/yr); robotaxi Phoenix 2.5k/CA CPUC L2; Ark $2k; MS/Stifel/Baird vs UBS/GLJ.