US Economy Pulse

US consumer prices have climbed nearly 40% over the past decade, far outpacing typical gradual rises. This long-term trend sets the stage for...

• Food prices are on track for 50% higher levels since mid-2021, driven by climate-impacted items rather than wages.
• Energy, insurance, and water...

Base oil prices at all-time highs are triggering a spreading supply squeeze across the lubricants value chain, pushing up additive, freight, and blending costs for traders and blenders.

Sustained price rises and housing shortages create a compounding burden on American families.

• Inflation holds at 3.8% year-over-year, with shelter...

Household Spending and Savings Pressures

• 🔥 Retail Sales Slowdown: April U.S. retail sales grew 0.5% month-over-month to $757.1B, slower than...

US households face mounting pressure as savings hit historic lows while debt and paycheck living surge.

• Savings rate stuck at 3.6% in March, lowest...

Shrinkflation and food quality shifts hit household budgets through a mix of monetary policy and supply changes.

• Fed-driven costs: Quantitative...

• TIC flows reveal economic realities policymakers cannot easily dismiss, with analysts highlighting data that speaks clearly amid policy debates.
  -...

• Manufacturing slide: Jobs in the sector have fallen steadily since 2023, even as headline employment stays resilient.
• Broader slowdown: Hiring...

Inflation hit 3.8% year-over-year in April, fueled by energy costs, while consumer sentiment plunged to record lows. Yet retail sales rose 0.5% from...

• Rising oil prices from Middle East instability and disappointing Trump/Xi talks drove yields sharply higher.
• MBS and Treasury yields hit...

ADP data paints a picture of a stable but muted U.S. labor market in a "low hire, low fire" state.

• Weekly employment pulse at 42,250 adds and April...

• Resilient Outlook: Strong Q1 GDP growth of 2% and surging business investment, including 17.2% in equipment, underpin plastics manufacturers despite...

Initial jobless claims hit their lowest level since 1969 at 189,000, signaling a robust labor market that supports household incomes and spending...

Mike Howard, CEO of Howard Energy Partners, is urging Permian Basin leaders to prioritize 5-10 year strategies over quarterly results while openly...

Kevin Warsh takes over as Fed Chair with inflation at a 3-year high of 3.8% and a mandate that pits aggressive balance-sheet cuts against political...

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell covered the latest interest rate decision, inflation trends, economic growth forecasts, and labor market...

The May Empire State Manufacturing Index surged to 19.6, well above the 7.8 consensus and 11.0 prior. This upside surprise highlights stronger regional manufacturing momentum than markets anticipated.

April U.S. retail sales rose just 0.5% month-over-month to $757.1B, matching forecasts but slowing from March's revised 1.6% gain. This moderation points to cooling consumer spending momentum after the prior month's spike.

Kevin Warsh steps into the Federal Reserve chair role this Friday following his narrow Senate confirmation. The hawkish new leader assumes control...