SF/SV hottest markets + listings crash amid seller/tenant frictions; condo lending eases; rates >6.53%; AI boom/RTO/Israeli influx drives record rents/prices + South Bay office rebound + job gains + flip proofs + remodel traps + SoMa cooling/tents + SV spring heating + 2026 forecasts/natl contrast + lowest stale listings + quakes + Atherton luxury peak + Anthropic PAC + retiree cap gains + AI buyer tools + natl seller glut + overbids spike + Japantown SJ policy lock-in
SF/SJ/Oak lowest natl stale + actives <1k (-28% YoY -6%), SF med $2.15M +18%/condos $1.36M +27% Mar records (Compass; luxury 22>$5M houses +83%, 24>$3M condos +380%, every sale over asking; recent avg house $1.69M/somewhat competitive 57/100); condos cash dom 340u -12%, 2.1mos DOM28 pendings+38% SoMa/FiDi/MB hot, crypto mtgs), Parkside med $1.295M DOM17, South Bay office 3.2M sq ft Q1 (OpenAI 439k), jobs +28k '25/+15k Jan'26, overbids SF 10%/Berkeley 20%/Noe 93%/Pac Heights SFH $2M+ RTO-driven, AI rents +14-18% confirmed Fremont $1,724/585sf 1BR vs $2.5k norms/SJ Japantown $3-11k tech/policy shift (CEQA/Prop13), waterfront prefs + SoMa tents/Cow Hollow rarity; SV $700k+ overbids (Milpitas/Palo Alto/Israelis/Saratoga etc.); natl 0% early '26 growth. Track Zillow/Zumper/overbids/SoMa/AI/office/jobs/Prop13/stale/Noe/SJ/Milpitas/Palo Alto/Israeli/Merced Heights/quakes/Mission/Atherton/Redwood Shores/Pac Heights/tax tools/rates/waterfront/Fremont/Parkside/Japantown/condos cash.