US Real Estate Pulse

Residential Demand Signals

• 🔥 MBA Mortgage Applications Drop: MBA mortgage applications fell -10.9% week-over-week versus +3.2% prior, marking...

Vital FRED series for macro pricing trends:

• MSPUS metric: Median sales price of houses sold in the U.S.
• Historical span: Q1 1963 to Q4 2025
• Access: Graph and download available

AveryGPT launches as the Bloomberg Terminal for CRE lending, solving inefficiencies in lender matching for brokers and in-house teams.

Key...

Early signs of housing demand pullback as rates rise:

• Lower rates under 6.25% drove positive momentum in 2026—until last week.
• MBA apps fell...

Spring 2026 buyer edge sharpens: 66 of 200 largest U.S. markets now exceed Feb 2019 active inventory levels—up from zero in 2022. National total hits...

Emerging trend: National home prices are down year-over-year, echoing Florida's drop where average sold prices fell $35k to $328k.

• Supply mixed:...

Generational wealth shift intensifies: Homeowners 70+ now hold 26% of U.S. real estate wealth (up from 21.6% a decade ago), with 55-69 at 35.3%—only...

Key trend signals in U.S. housing construction:

• NAHB index rises to 38 in March, showing slight builder optimism.
• Persistent headwinds: Elevated...

Positive shock in residential demand signals:

• +1.8% MoM rise vs. est. -0.6% & prior -1%
• NAR index hits 72.1 unexpectedly
• Data as winter ends
  Early thaw for buyers and investors?

• Fed steady: Holds federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% for second straight meeting, with updated forecasts.
• Mortgage swings: Rates jumped above 6.4%...

94% value crash signals silent CRE collapse: a $68M (2016) building sold last month for $4.2M.

Key risks for investors:

• $957B CRE loans due in 2025...

DCF values shift dramatically across upside, base, and downside scenarios at 6%, 8%, and 10% discount rates, with widening gaps between best and worst cases—critical sensitivity for CRE investors.

Rising rates are crushing U.S. homebuyer demand, muting Sun Belt migration into states like Florida.

• Affordability hits record lows, accelerating...

Builder Sentiment Edges Up

• 🔥 NAHB HMI Rises to 38: NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index increased one point to 38 in March from revised...

Trump's March 13 EO directs HUD, EPA, USDA and others to remove regulatory barriers delaying residential construction and driving up costs, targeting affordable housing supply.

• HMI up 1 point to 38, below 50 breakeven; all components rise: current sales to 42 (+1), sales expectations to 49 (+2), buyer traffic to 25 (+3)
  -...

• Post-COVID shift: Gold rush to balanced market demands strategic pricing and long-term buyer matching
• High rates & rising inventory pivot luxury...

AI transforms property valuations using real-time data, images, text, and geospatial signals for sharper results in residential and commercial...

Practical insights for small landlords and SFR investors:

• Key differences between affordable and low-income housing explained
• AMI limits overview
• Section 8 subsidies details
• Tenant screening guidance

Investor watch: Among counties with >1M residents, a cluster in California, Pennsylvania, Illinois surfaces as the nation's most vulnerable housing markets, amid a broader affordability crisis.