Middle East Investment Watch

Oil Price and Supply Shock

• 🔥 Brent Crude Jump: Brent crude jumped to $101 a barrel after Iranian strikes cut Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic by...

Four distinct dimensions shape the ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruption:

• Initial strikes: Iranian attacks on tankers slashed Hormuz traffic 70%,...

The Strait of Hormuz conflict is driving a dual energy shock. Global oil and gas inventories have plunged to historic lows, pushing fuel prices...

Chinese establishment analysts frame the Hormuz crisis as exposing US 'low-cost hegemony' over maritime chokepoints, accelerating a strategic pivot...

Global Economic Slowdown Risks

• 🔥 OECD Downgrades Forecast: The OECD cut its global growth outlook to 2.8% in 2026, warning that prolonged...

The Hormuz crisis is layering acute shipping paralysis atop macroeconomic shocks and deeper geoeconomic fractures, raising sustained risks for energy,...

Hormuz Strait Transit and Reopening

• 🔥 Fitch July Reopening Assumption: Fitch Ratings' current assumption is for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen...

• Iran’s PGSA claims 300 ship sign-ups for paid Hormuz transit, mostly oil tankers to China and India, plus 24 IRGC-escorted vessels.
• Independent...

Fitch Ratings assumes the Strait of Hormuz reopens in July, underpinning its 2026 Brent forecast.

The Port of NEOM offers a faster but far costlier...

Divergent US messaging on the Hormuz crisis highlights potential policy tensions:

• Rubio told Congress Iran mined “large segments” of the strait,...

June 2 sequence: US Hellfire disabled tanker M/T Lexie running blockade to Kharg Island. Iran launched drones at Gulf shipping and ballistic missiles...

The Strait of Hormuz blockade is fracturing supply chains from humanitarian relief to high-tech manufacturing.

• Afghanistan aid crisis: WFP...

• Gold steadies near $4,485 as Gulf hostilities provide haven support while higher oil prices and Fed rate warnings limit gains
• Global oil...

Amid ongoing geopolitical tensions including the Hormuz closure, MENA investors are shifting away from SaaS toward cash-generating businesses and SME...

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed after 94 days, with just 4-7 vessels transiting daily versus the normal 100, cutting off 20% of global...

Strait of Hormuz Control Moves

• 🔥 Iran Formalizes Hormuz Management: Iran’s parliament is advancing legislation to formally establish management...

Converging evidence from military, industry, and markets indicates prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption, raising investment risks in energy and...

The Strait of Hormuz has shifted from neutral shipping lane to a politically stratified toll road where access hinges on alignment with Iran rather...

Iran advances legislation to formalize management of the Strait of Hormuz with Oman, requiring vessels to obtain IRGC permission.

• UAE counters by...

Hormuz Disruptions and Energy Crisis

• 🔥 90-Day Supply Shock: The Iran war has caused the loss of 1 billion barrels of crude, wiped 10 million...