Iran–US Hormuz deal and reopening
Key Questions
What is the current status of a US-Iran ceasefire on the Hormuz issue?
The near 60-day ceasefire remains unconfirmed and increasingly unlikely, with Doha talks stalled and betting odds for June normalization at 26%. The US has no Plan B while military exchanges continue.
How has the conflict affected shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz?
Unconfirmed Iranian missile and drone strikes on tankers have cut traffic by 70%, with Iran mining large segments and formalizing control via a PGSA toll system that 300 ships have applied for. Kpler warns it could take 3-4 months to clear ships.
What alternative routes are vessels using amid the Hormuz tensions?
A secret US Omani route bypasses the blockade, though vessels face increased risk of Iranian missiles near Oman's coast. Iran also threatens the Bab el-Mandeb and internet cables.
US-Iran near 60-day ceasefire remains unconfirmed and increasingly unlikely. US has no Plan B; Iran threatens Bab el-Mandeb and internet cables. US secret Omani route bypasses blockade. Iran missile/drone strikes on tankers (unconfirmed) cut traffic 70%. Iran's parliament formalizing control via PGSA toll system (300 ships applied). Iran mined large segments. Military exchanges continue. Betting odds for June normalization at 26%. Kpler warns 3-4 months to clear ships. Doha talks stalled. Fitch July reopening assumption widely doubted.