Hormuz Reopening Negotiations: Fragile Progress with Conflicting Signals

Oman and Iran reached a temporary agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz with no tolls and US/UN involvement, but Iran also demands exclusion of US/Israeli ships and fee structures. Shipping industry cites sanctions and insurance as deal-breakers, keeping physical markets tight. Oil prices rose on the news but remain volatile. Prediction markets show 8.5% chance of reopening by July 31, 45.5% by August 31.