Global Issues Brief

Climate Monitoring and El Niño Risks Intensify

Climate Monitoring and El Niño Risks Intensify

Key Questions

What risks face the Global Ocean Observing System?

The system, critical for El Niño and weather forecasts, is at risk of being dismantled by the Trump administration just as a super El Niño looms.

What are the latest projections for El Niño?

The UN WMO projects an 80-90% probability of El Niño onset, with a 75% chance of exceeding 1.5°C within five years.

What record did England recently set?

England recorded its hottest May Day in 254 years amid intensifying climate monitoring concerns.

What does the new IEA report indicate about energy investments?

The IEA report shows oil investment falling while renewables surge, signaling a structural shift in global energy.

What broader risks do these developments compound?

They increase risks of famines, mass migrations, and systemic crises as climate and ocean observation capabilities face disruption.

The Global Ocean Observing System, backbone of El Niño and weather forecasts, is at risk of being dismantled by the Trump administration just as a super El Niño looms. UN WMO projects 80-90% probability of El Niño onset with 75% chance of exceeding 1.5°C within five years. England recorded its hottest May Day in 254 years. A new IEA report shows oil investment falling while renewables surge, signaling structural energy shift. These developments compound risks of famines, mass migrations, and systemic crises.

Sources (3)
Updated Jun 5, 2026
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