Global Issues Brief

El Niño and Global Climate Records

El Niño and Global Climate Records

Key Questions

What is the probability of an El Niño onset according to the UN WMO?

The UN WMO projects an 80-90% probability of El Niño onset, with a 75% chance of global temperatures exceeding 1.5°C within five years.

How will El Niño impact global weather and temperatures?

El Niño is expected to bring above-average temperatures nearly everywhere and fuel extreme weather events, affecting agriculture, water resources, and supply chains.

What other climate risks are associated with current conditions?

Arctic amplification and Amazon drought risks have been highlighted alongside the El Niño forecast, compounding concerns over global climate records.

UN WMO projects 80-90% probability of El Niño onset, with 75% chance of exceeding 1.5°C within five years. Expected to bring above-average temperatures 'nearly everywhere' and fuel extreme weather, impacting agriculture, water, and supply chains. Arctic amplification and Amazon drought risks highlighted.

Sources (2)
Updated Jun 4, 2026
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