Burry/Knight NVDA Bear & Tech/Semis Divergence/Reversals
Key Questions
What bearish signals are surrounding NVDA?
NVDA faced rejection at $217 with Michael Burry adding puts and Knight taking a short position. Credit divergence via widening CDS spreads adds caution despite price holding up.
How have semis performed recently amid the rotation?
SMH is down 19% month-to-date with names like IBM, WDC, and SK Hynix posting sharp declines on HBM4 slowdown concerns. Recent bounces in MU, WDC, and SNDK show rotation but lack sustained breadth.
What does the credit divergence in NVDA and Oracle indicate?
Widening CDS spreads on NVDA while the stock holds steady mirrors patterns seen in Oracle, signaling potential risk despite bullish technical views targeting $240.
Are semis showing signs of bottoming?
BofA's buy call on momentum stocks and MU bull flag formation support a potential bottoming thesis, though elevated fear index and real yields at cycle highs remain headwinds.
What levels are key for AAPL in the current setup?
AAPL is trading flat pre-earnings with support at $287.50 and resistance at $334.99. The stock carries a strong 99 Composite Rating for potential swing entries.
NVDA $217 rej, Burry puts, Knight short. Semis crash: SMH -19% MTD, IBM -25.2%, WDC -20%+, SK Hynix -15% on HBM4 slowdown. Contrarian: everyone still long semis (LaDuc). Latest: rotation into semis with institutional footprint – MU, MRVL, SNDK, AAPL levels. MRVL surged 14% on new AI memory products (Bravera/Structera/Photonic Fabric), $250M India R&D, FCC ban tailwind. Tech surged 2%, momentum drawdown similar to 2022 bottom; MU bull flag forming, fear index elevated – potential bear trap. But credit divergence (Oracle CDS) warns of risk. New article argues AI sell-off is a short-term worry, challenging bearish thesis. NVDA CDS widening while stock holds up. Real yields surging to 2.43% cycle highs add headwind. Late-day reversal pattern suggests potential gap lower. NVDA expert bullish targeting $240, reinforcing rotation narrative. SMH head-and-shoulders neckline at $550 with $510-520 downside target. RAM ETF -9.2% confirms DRAM cooling. INTC breakout from 26-year cup and handle. Semis flush analysis: 75% retail liquidated, yearly VWAP support, QQQs 100-day SMA gives 65% bounce edge. FX divergence with semis rally – USD/JPY intervention risk, implied correlation rising, liquidity withdrawal adds caution. Swing trading educator cautions on semi squeeze, emphasizes waiting for follow-through. Latest: S&P 500 movers show NXPI, MU among weekly losers. Talon watchlist includes semiconductor clusters. 3 Momentum Anomaly Stocks highlight SNDK, CRS, AMKR as rotation plays. AMD earnings upcoming as key test for chip and momentum stocks – options market implies specific moves. SNDK sold off on guidance, Nvidia HBM rumor adds uncertainty. Leveraged ETFs amplifying tech/semi volatility, creating opportunities and risks. New: NVDA 12% weekly gain, SMCI surging premarket ahead of earnings, semis rotation continues. LaDuc flags cheap downside protection amid AI euphoria – hedges unusually affordable ahead of CPI, sustainability question for swing trades. Latest article highlights MRVL, CRDO, NVDA, SITM, LRCX as AI stocks with strong growth and bullish technical setups (50-day MA recapture, RSI uptrend) ahead of earnings.