Gas Supply Security & Industrial Transition Risk

Methanex’s confirmed plan to halt New Zealand production indefinitely in Q1 2027 highlights declining domestic gas supply and industrial-transition risk. The government’s $20 million offshore exploration programme, including the Kaheru target and basin-wide seismic work, and First Gas’s two Todd Energy security-fund projects could improve future supply, but remain uncertain and limited against reservoir decline, deliverability constraints, expected Maui closure and electricity-sector firming needs. Exploration activity has not yet established commercially deliverable near-term gas, while LNG remains unresolved.