Iran War Risk Monitor

Nuclear Program Pressure

• 🔥 Trump Reacts to Uranium Duality: Trump called Iran's 10-point ceasefire proposal workable then fraudulent after...

• Market exhale: Oil plunges below $100 after Iran's provisional two-week ceasefire and Hormuz reopening, stripping war premium.
• Shipping resumes:...

• Iranian mobilization: Officials urge youth to form human chains around power plants; President says 14M ready to sacrifice lives as Trump deadline...

Iranian regime propaganda uses AI videos showing Shiite warriors slashing Trump, capturing US carriers, and launching suicide attacks.

• Narrator...

Iran's bilingual duality erodes negotiation trust amid fragile two-week ceasefire:

• English UN statement omits uranium enrichment demand; Farsi media...

Iranian Leadership Shift

• 🔥 Khamenei's Son Named New Supreme Leader: Mojtaba Khamenei was announced as the new Supreme Leader by Iran's Assembly...

Escalating trend: US targets Kharg Island oil hub—vital export point—while threatening power plants and bridges if Strait of Hormuz not reopened by...

Domestic shifts signal unyielding war resolve amid mounting losses:

• IRGC Intel Chief Killed: Majid Khademi, appointed post-2025 war predecessor's...

Trump's ultimatums on Iran's Strait of Hormuz, bridges, and power plants face growing GOP pushback, humanitarian alarms, and war crime warnings.

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• Tehran counters Trump's strike deadline with a 10-point peace plan via Pakistan: reopen Strait of Hormuz for full US sanctions lift and security...

Military Strikes and Losses

• 🔥 Israel Hits Petrochemical Site: Israel attacked the Asaluyeh petrochemical site, which produces half of Iran's...

Trump's ultimatum demands Hormuz open by Tuesday or face power plant and bridge attacks.

• Israel responds with strike on Asaluyeh site (half Iran's...

Massive US deployment escalates: 50,000 troops, three carrier groups, F-35s at Qatar, B-2 over Natanz.

• Iran activates Ring of Fire: IRGC max...

Historic escalation in 2026 US-Iran war: US Navy submarine sinks Iranian vessel with single heavyweight torpedo in Indian Ocean international...

Contrasting paths for Iran war resolution:

• Pakistani 'Islamabad Accords' de-escalation: Immediate ceasefire to reopen Strait of Hormuz, with 15–20...

Ceasefire Stalemate and Hardliner Backlash

• 🔥 US-Iran Talks Reach Standstill: Mediators report US-Iran ceasefire talks at a standstill as Iran...

Iranian retaliation escalates with claims of missiles hitting Israel's war HQ, army office, and infrastructure:

• Targets include Ben Gurion Airport...

UAE crackdown could disrupt Iran's wider shadow network, experts say, amplifying international pressure amid diplomatic struggles between Washington and Tehran to shape regional power.

Key blocks to de-escalation:

• Ceasefire standstill: Iran rejects US talks in Islamabad unless it pays reparations, withdraws bases, and vows no...

US Aircraft Downed Over Iran

• 🔥 F-15E Strike Eagle Crash: A US F-15E fighter jet was downed over southern Iran, with search and rescue underway...