Iran War Risk Monitor

Hormuz month 2+/energy crisis: Kharg/Asaluyeh hits/blackouts/oil $108-120+

Hormuz month 2+/energy crisis: Kharg/Asaluyeh hits/blackouts/oil $108-120+

Key Questions

What is the impact of strikes on Kharg and Asaluyeh?

Kharg oil hub and Asaluyeh (50%) have been hit by multiple US strikes, causing explosions and blackouts in Tehran, Pasteur, and universities. IRGC blockades Hormuz into month 2+. Gulf refineries affected, worsening energy crisis.

How have oil prices been affected?

Brent oil prices have risen to $108-120+, with gas prices up amid Hormuz crisis. Oil plunged below $100 temporarily as Iran blinked on Strait access. Global energy markets volatile due to strikes.

What threats has Trump issued?

Trump threatens power plants and bridges, warning of total power grid strikes. Hegseth claims Iran must hand over enriched uranium or US will take it. Tehran ready for 6-month fight.

What blackouts are occurring in Iran?

Blackouts hit Tehran, Pasteur Institute, universities, and wider areas due to energy infrastructure strikes. Humanitarian catastrophe warnings rise for millions struggling with food. Iran braces for US escalation.

What is the UAE's role in the energy crisis?

UAE crackdown targets Iran's shadow fleet and wider network, straining operations. This adds to Hormuz blockade pressures. Experts note impacts on Iran's oil evasion tactics.

How long has the Hormuz crisis lasted?

Strait of Hormuz crisis enters month 2+, with IRGC ultimatums and fees proposed. Israel attacked major petrochemical sites post-Trump threats. Future war scenarios debated amid coordination.

What humanitarian risks are highlighted?

Destroying power plants could cause humanitarian catastrophe in Tehran, with millions facing food shortages and global financial issues. Iran warns of broader consequences. Energy hits deepen internal woes.

What is Iran's preparedness for prolonged conflict?

Iran claims readiness for 6-month fight despite threats to power grid. Focus on survival amid blackouts and strikes. Three scenarios outlined if US continues fighting.

IRGC block/ults + Kharg/Asaluyeh 50% strikes/Gulf refineries/Tehran/Pasteur/uni blackouts; UAE crackdown/shadow fleet; Brent $108-120+/gas up; Trump power/bridge threats; humanitarian catastrophe warns.

Sources (10)
Updated Apr 8, 2026