Housing slump amid mortgage hikes, regs, planning bottlenecks and mixed affordability signals
Key Questions
What are the latest housing output figures?
ONS reports overall output at -2% and private housing at -6.3%. PMI stands at 44.5, with starts up 24% in Q4 but constrained, as seen in projects like Esh's £18m development.
How have mortgage rates affected the housing market?
Mortgage rates are at 4.5-4.8% or higher, contributing to new-build sales down 20-30% and Bellway margins at 10.5% in H1. This has led to a housing slump amid planning bottlenecks.
What is the status of Labour's housing pledge?
Labour's pledge has slipped to 1.1m homes by 2029, with far fewer homes being built than promised. The government plans 7 new towns and a Nat Housing Bank with £16bn from April 1.
What are the current trends in rents and house prices?
Latest ONS data shows rents flat at 3.5% and prices up 1.3%, with affordability improving in 2025. However, renting is becoming unaffordable, with 34-35% rent increases and landlords planning exits.
What new regulations are impacting housing construction?
Upcoming regs include second staircases, new products from May 2026, CIS from April 2026, and MHCLG consultations on Cat A/B/HRB work proportionality. The Building and Plumbing Administration and Enforcement Bill 2026 adds enforcement risks.
What fire safety concerns are arising in housing?
65% of social housing fire doors are failing, with concerns over 'plug-in' solar panels and gaps in NFPA 241 adoption. Ramtech highlights wireless solutions ahead of 2026 fire safety code changes.
What is the 'Time to Pay Up' initiative?
It's a new late payments crackdown targeting persistent offenders with SBC fines and interest. This adds pressure amid rising construction costs projected at +15% by 2031.
Where are property investors shifting their focus?
Investors are abandoning London/SE for the North due to market shifts. Planning reforms and projects like Earls Court underscore regional disparities.
ONS output -2%, private -6.3%; PMI 44.5; starts +24% Q4 constrained (e.g. Esh £18m); mortgages 4.5-4.8%+, Bellway margins 10.5% (H1), new-builds down 20-30%; Labour pledge slips to 1.1m homes by 2029; latest ONS rents flat 3.5%, prices +1.3%. Late payments 'Time to Pay Up' adds SBC fines/interest. Investors abandoning London/SE for North; Gov 7 new towns, Nat Housing Bank £16bn Apr1. Regs intensify: second staircase, products May20, CIS Apr2026; MHCLG Cat A/B/HRB consults; solar plug-ins fire concerns (65% social housing fire doors failing). Costs +15% by 2031.