Social Security’s 2032 solvency deadline and 2027 COLA
Key Questions
What happened to ACA enhanced premium tax credits?
The enhanced subsidies expired on January 1, 2026, leading to a 13% drop in enrollment of 3 million people.
What premium increases are insurers requesting for 2027?
Insurers are requesting an average 14% premium increase for 2027, the second-highest rate in nearly a decade, driven by sicker risk pools after subsidy expiration.
Which areas are most affected by ACA enrollment drops?
Rural counties experienced a 12% enrollment decline compared to the 8% national average, with 532 of the 778 counties seeing the highest premium increases located in nonmetro areas.
How many people are at risk from the subsidy changes?
Approximately 4.8 million individuals are at risk of losing coverage or facing significantly higher costs in the individual market.
What early market signals indicate adverse selection?
Rising premiums and enrollment declines point to an adverse selection spiral, representing a structural shift in the ACA individual market.
SSA announced a 3.6% COLA for 2027 on October 14, with payments beginning in December for SSI and January for Social Security. SSA says the 2027 Part B premium should appear in my Social Security message centers starting in late November, with paper notices in December; the amount—and therefore the net COLA gain—remains unknown. The 2026 Trustees report projects OASI reserve depletion in late 2032, with 78% of scheduled benefits payable absent legislation.