Mexico 2026 Economic Downturn Warnings

Q1 GDP contraction -0.6% (revised), inflation at 4.45% (April) with weak momentum; Moody's Baa3 downgrade and fiscal/Pemex risks persist amid stagflation and 1.1% growth outlook. Hacienda defends stability while private forecasts diverge. Employment record but slowing. Ceesp warns of prolonged slowdown. Fitch may follow Moody's. T-MEC negotiations add uncertainty. New data reveals IED 'record' is 94% reinvestment, not new money; real capital flows declining. Carlos Slim's $5B investment and BEI's €3B commitment provide positive counterpoints. Banking sector remains resilient but credit growth slowing.