Macro Headwinds Intensify: Rate Hike Odds, Oil at $100, AI Capex Anxiety, and Market Rotation

Rate hike odds: 38% for July, 57% for September 25bp hike. Oil at $100 on Iran strikes, jobless claims at 1969 lows. Treasury yields spiked (10yr 4.7%, mortgage 6.6%). S&P 500 at record highs but consumer sentiment recession-level. AI capex anxiety from Alphabet's $205B spend, but J.P. Morgan notes AI trade is broader than chips. Small-cap rotation continues. Summer storm risk from yen weakness and Treasury report. Economic week ahead: GDP, PCE, housing, FOMC.