Hyperscalers and AI Infrastructure Suppliers Rework Plans as Financing and Capacity Risks Rise

Projected 2026 infrastructure spending of $775–800B and about $1T in AI revenue remain scenarios for earning a 15% return, not proof returns will materialize. Microsoft coverage repeats 48% Azure growth and capacity delays; Amazon’s cash-flow gap after equipment spending and an analyst’s concern about customers financing the buildout reinforce the need to track utilization, cash conversion, capex efficiency and realized returns. Recent selloff-and-recovery coverage reflects sentiment, not resolution of these risks; Navitas’ growth and backlog offer an early power-supply signal, but profitability remains unproven.