Fed Rate Pulse

March CPI Highlights

• 🔥 Headline Inflation Jumps: U.S. headline CPI rose to 3.3% y/y in March from 2.4% in February and +0.9% m/m from +0.3%,...

• Core CPI slowdown at +0.2% MoM (below +0.3% exp) eases broad inflation fears, sparking dollar selling (USD/JPY to 158.94) and receding rate hike...

Key hawkish signals from March FOMC minutes: Some officials open to rate increases due to stubborn inflation amplified by Iran war.

Inflation surge...

FOMC Minutes Release

• 🔥 11-1 Vote to Hold Rates: FOMC voted 11-1 to hold interest rates at 3.5%-3.75% in March meeting, debating rate cuts if...

Key split on Iran war oil spike's Fed impact:

• Analysts fear unanchored expectations fueling spirals, echoing 1970s, delaying 2% target.
• Markets...

FOMC divide in March minutes: 11-1 hold at 3.5%-3.75%, open to cuts if inflation cools or hikes if not.

• Sticky PCE met Feb expectations (0.4% MoM,...

Key FOMC divide from March minutes:

• Rates held at 3.50%-3.75%; inflation above 2% target with uneven progress
• Some officials eye maintaining or...

March FOMC Minutes Highlights

• 🔥 Officials Expect Rate Cut This Year: Federal Reserve officials still expect to deliver an interest rate cut...

Fed baseline holds: Officials still project one rate cut this year, unchanged from December, if inflation eases.

• War uncertainty delays timing: Some...

Growing hawkishness in March minutes: Larger group of policymakers open to rate hikes if inflation stays above 2% target, driven by U.S.-Israeli war...

Middle East ceasefire calmed oil fears, boosting odds of a Fed rate cut by December to 25% (up from 14%) on lower energy costs.

March minutes confirm...

Key investor focuses ahead of today's March FOMC minutes release (18:00 GMT):

• Inflation worries: Views on persistent pressures from oil surges and...

• Oil crash eases inflation fears: WTI plunged 18% to $92, dropping 10-year yield 5bps to 4.25%.
• Cut odds rise: CME FedWatch shows 34% chance of at...

Vice Chair Jefferson sees the labor market roughly in balance but susceptible to adverse shocks, while inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target. Highlights need for policy vigilance amid resilience and persistence.

Rising oil prices arrive alongside Fed minutes, questioning the rate path as a planned cut grows less certain due to tighter financial conditions.

FOMC March Minutes Preview

• 🔥 War Risks and Inflation Views: Fed March meeting minutes, due Wednesday afternoon, may detail policymakers' views...

Iran ceasefire sparks Treasury yield plunge and revives rate-cut bets:

• 2-year yield down 11 bps to 3.72%; 10-year -7 bps to 4.85% as oil dips below...

Consumer inflation fears surge: Near-term expectations jumped to 3.4% from 3%, matching Dec levels, driven by gasoline forecasts up to 9.4%.

Fed...

Fed Presidents on Inflation Risks

• 🔥 Goolsbee and Hammack Call Inflation 'Orange' or Worse: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Chicago Fed...

• JPMorgan's Feroli forecasts zero cuts through 2026, next a 25bp hike Q3 2027 to 4.00% amid resilient jobs (4.4% unemp), stubborn inflation, Iran...