Fed Rate Pulse

• Waller's warning: Core PCE rose to 3.4% in May; policy at crossroads, tighter stance may be needed soon.
• Market odds climb: CME FedWatch shows...

Fed Chair Warsh heads into his first congressional testimony July 14-15 facing pointed questions on inflation, tariffs, oil prices, and the path of...

• Warsh's hawkish stance: New Fed Chair surprised markets by repeating rate-hike signals at his first FOMC press conference.
• Matus' counter-view:...

Key Fed Events This Week

• 🔥 CPI and Warsh Testimony: Tuesday's June CPI report and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's congressional testimony are...

Two opposing forces are colliding this week to shape July Fed expectations.

Domestic data arrives first: Tuesday's CPI report and Warsh's...

Dollar draws support from resilient US growth and Middle East tensions, yet the same forces lift real yields above 2.3% as traders price tighter Fed...

Goldman Sachs flags the Fed policy outlook as a major risk for U.S. stocks, noting markets price in nearly 50bp of tightening through mid-2027 even as...

Warsh's first congressional testimony this week, bookended by June CPI and PPI releases, will test market expectations for a July rate hike currently...

Fed Monetary Policy Report

• 🔥 Inflation Drivers: The Fed's semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to Congress states U.S. inflation stepped up...

The Fed's semiannual report to Congress reaffirmed its pledge to deliver price stability even as inflation remains elevated.

• Tariffs and energy...

The Federal Reserve's monetary policy report states that inflation remains elevated, driven by tariffs and Middle East war factors, with the price stability goal unmet despite a broadly stable labor market and solid economic expansion.

FOMC Minutes Signal Policy Split

• 🔥 Inflation Risks Prompt Hike Debate: FOMC minutes from June 16-17 show officials evenly divided on holding...

June FOMC minutes reveal an even divide among officials, with most ready to hike rates if inflation stays elevated but comfortable holding or cutting if it eases. Focus now turns to next week's CPI and PPI data amid Middle East tensions.

Bond strategists surveyed by Reuters largely expect shorter-dated Treasury yields to fall over the next year, viewing market-implied rate hikes as...

Roberto Perli stressed that reserve management purchases of Treasury bills remain fully adjustable, with no preset pace and the ability to raise or...

New York Fed President John Williams said Thursday he does not expect a sustained rise in energy prices despite renewed Middle East war, calling...

FOMC Minutes Release

• 🔥 June Minutes Show Rate Divide: Minutes released Wednesday detail that a few participants saw a case for a June hike while...

• Fed minutes revealed policymakers divided on rate hikes this year, with some favoring immediate increases while others saw inflation returning to...

• Dollar steady near multi-week highs at 162.41 yen amid safe-haven flows from Gulf tensions
• June FOMC minutes showed hawkish split on inflation,...

Fed minutes from the June 16-17 meeting reveal officials split on whether rates will rise or stay at 3.6% by year-end, with half supporting a hike....