Fed Rate Pulse

The Fed dot plot shows individual rate projections from up to 19 FOMC participants, updated quarterly with the SEP.

Investors should focus on the...

The weekly outlook centers on earnings reports and economic calendars, with only incidental mentions of scheduled Fed official remarks. No FOMC outcomes, statements, or rate-related analysis appears.

Treasury yields stabilized last week with focus shifting to upcoming CPI data for clues on the Fed’s policy path this year. The CME FedWatch tool sees rates unchanged this month followed by a December hike, as multiple Fed officials prepare to speak.

Market odds for a Fed rate hike at the late-October FOMC meeting have collapsed in both futures and prediction markets.

• Futures repricing:...

St. Louis Fed President Musalem sees rates needing to rise in the next six to nine months to curb inflation, without prejudging the October...

Fed Governor Waller stated that higher borrowing costs are still needed to tame inflation stuck above 2%, as a strengthening economy, AI buildout, and...

Gold climbed as softer dollar and lower Treasury yields reflected traders dialing back near-term Fed hike odds to just 18% for October. Markets now...

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said more monetary policy firming will be required to return inflation to target within roughly 18 months,...

Solid demand at the 30-year Treasury auction lifted U.S. bonds Thursday, pushing the 10-year yield down 5 bps to 5.227% as the issue priced below...

Governor Waller's speech shows the September 25bp hike to 3.75-4% reflected accumulated evidence of stalled inflation progress and a stabilized labor...

The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its September 15–16, 2026 FOMC meeting at 2:00 p.m. EDT. Descriptions reflect only information available to the Committee at the time.

FOMC Meeting Minutes release at 06:00pm, scheduled eight times yearly three weeks after each Federal Funds rate decision.

Despite the unanimous September rate hike, the minutes are expected to expose a wider range of views on future policy.

• Key divide: Some officials...

The forthcoming Fed minutes from last month's rate decision may shed light on officials' inflation concerns, though the piece functions mainly as a...

The Fed's Sept. 17 lift of the interest-on-reserve-balances rate to 3.90% sets a firmer floor under overnight markets, keeping the federal funds rate...

Softer-than-expected September jobs data led traders to trim bets on another Federal Reserve rate hike, driving the dollar lower on Friday.

Fed Vice Chair Jefferson said the next rate move “may take more time” as higher Treasury yields signal investors are reassessing the outlook. He kept...

Senior Fed officials have delivered unusually clear signals against an October rate hike, with New York Fed President John Williams stating “there is...

Fed officials delivered unusually clear guidance this week that more data is needed before any further rate moves, triggering a swift market retreat...

Treasury yield and dollar swings are acting as a direct transmission channel for changing Fed expectations ahead of jobs data. The 10-year yield hit...