Geopolitical Conflicts and Macroeconomic Fallout

US sanctions are destroying Iran's rial (halved in 18 months), with prediction markets pricing only 28.5% chance of reconstruction funding, challenging any near-term US-Iran deal. Meanwhile, the macroeconomic consequences of two wars (Ukraine, Middle East) are expected to linger—energy shocks, recession risk, and a trillion-dollar military rebuild. Drone warfare shift is a structural signal for defense spending and productivity. These geopolitical risks add stress to global markets and fiscal outlooks.