How AI, semiconductors and digital policy are redefining power and security
AI, Tech and Digital Sovereignty
How AI, Semiconductors, and Digital Policy Are Redefining Power and Security in 2024–26
The rapid pace of technological innovation in AI and advanced hardware, coupled with shifting digital policies, is fundamentally transforming the landscape of global power and security. Nations are now engaged in a high-stakes competition over digital sovereignty, supply chain resilience, and the development of norms governing emerging autonomous systems, shaping a new geopolitics centered on technological mastery.
Strategic Competition Over Digital Sovereignty and Critical Resources
At the core of this evolving landscape is technological sovereignty—the pursuit by nations to control their digital infrastructure, AI ecosystems, and access to critical minerals necessary for hardware manufacturing. This competition is intensifying as countries recognize that control over these domains underpins military strength, economic resilience, and global influence.
Key areas of focus include:
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Semiconductor supply chains: The U.S. has enacted the CHIPS and Science Act, funneling over $50 billion into domestic semiconductor manufacturing to insulate its economy from vulnerabilities and counter China's rapid technological advances. This move aims to reduce reliance on foreign sources, especially in critical hardware sectors.
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Critical minerals: Countries like the U.S. and Europe are actively working to diversify and secure supplies of rare earth elements, lithium, cobalt, and other essential materials. The European Chips Act exemplifies efforts to bolster local manufacturing, aiming for self-sufficiency and resilience against geopolitical shocks.
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Normative leadership and international standards: Europe is positioning itself as a normative leader in setting global standards for AI, cyber security, and emerging communication technologies (like 5G and 6G). Its focus on privacy, security, and ethical AI aims to influence international governance frameworks, countering both U.S. and Chinese models.
Major Actors and Policy Responses
United States:
The U.S. emphasizes innovation and supply chain security through policy initiatives like the CHIPS Act and targeted export controls—particularly on advanced AI chips and autonomous systems. It seeks to counter China's technological rise while reducing dependencies on foreign minerals and hardware. The U.S. also prioritizes cybersecurity and resilient infrastructure to safeguard military and economic assets.
European Union:
Europe's digital sovereignty strategy encompasses building indigenous infrastructure, regulating Big Tech, and leading normative frameworks for AI and cyber norms. The EU’s Data Governance Framework and recent regulations aim to protect privacy, promote trustworthy AI, and shape international standards. The Chips Act underscores Europe's goal to develop self-reliant semiconductor production and diversify supply sources.
China:
China pursues resource expansion and technological self-reliance, investing heavily in mining projects across Africa and other resource-rich regions to secure critical minerals. Its "Made in China 2025" plan aims for self-sufficiency in semiconductors and AI, while its maritime strategy—the "String of Pearls"—secures vital sea lanes and strategic ports, particularly in the Indo-Pacific, to support resource access and regional dominance.
India and Japan:
India is advancing strategic autonomy by securing supply chains for rare earths and lithium, crucial for AI hardware. The Great Nicobar Project enhances its regional power projection, especially in the Indian Ocean, countering Chinese influence. Japan is reinforcing maritime defense by arming islands like Yonaguni near Taiwan with Type-03 Chū-SAM missiles, signaling a shift toward assertive regional security.
The Frontlines of New Power Dynamics and Flashpoints
Maritime and Frontier Regions:
- Indo-Pacific: Heightened activity includes India’s efforts to strengthen its presence in the Indian Ocean and counter Chinese influence. China’s naval deployments near Australia and Taiwan illustrate attempts to secure sea lanes and assert regional dominance.
- Arctic and Greenland: Melting ice opens new strategic avenues. Greenland, with its potential for missile defense, shipping routes, and untapped minerals, is increasingly contested by Russia, Canada, and the U.S.. These developments are prompting military investments and infrastructure build-up in the region.
- Indian Ocean and the Chagos Islands: Recent developments, including Iran’s engagement with the islands, highlight ongoing regional tensions and shifting influence, which could impact maritime security and trade routes.
Technological and Military Innovation:
The integration of AI and autonomous systems into military arsenals is reshaping warfare. Examples include:
- China’s Wing Loong 10B drone, an AI-enabled autonomous weapon system that complicates deterrence dynamics.
- The U.S. is reevaluating its Special Operations Forces (SOF) doctrines to better leverage offensive, adaptive strategies suited for the era of strategic competition.
Emerging Threats:
Cyber warfare, autonomous systems, and AI agents pose new vulnerabilities. Experts warn that AI-driven cyberattack tools could transform espionage and strategic manipulation, emphasizing the need for robust cybersecurity and ethical standards.
Norms, International Cooperation, and the Future Outlook
International efforts like the SIPRI arms control initiatives and cyber norms are crucial to managing escalation risks. The Munich Security Conference underscores the importance of multilateral cooperation in AI, cyber security, and resource governance to prevent destabilization.
Future projections indicate that by 2026:
- Europe will emerge as a normative and technological leader in AI, quantum security, and critical minerals.
- The U.S. will intensify efforts to secure supply chains and assert technological dominance, sometimes resembling a "Trump 2.0" approach emphasizing resource and supply chain independence.
- China’s self-reliance ambitions will continue to drive technological breakthroughs and regional influence.
Implications for Global Power and Security
This high-stakes competition over digital sovereignty, critical resources, and strategic infrastructure redefines power in the 21st century. The ability of nations to innovate, control supply chains, and shape international norms will determine their influence in this new era.
Challenges include:
- Ensuring resilient supply chains against disruptions.
- Developing internationally accepted norms to manage AI and cyber threats.
- Navigating regional conflicts and flashpoints that could escalate into broader confrontations.
Conclusion
In this era marked by rapid technological and resource-driven competition, power is increasingly defined by mastery over AI, control of critical minerals, and resilience of infrastructure. Countries that innovate, adapt, and lead in setting global standards will shape the future of geopolitics—either through cooperative governance or strategic dominance.
As 2024–26 unfolds, the stakes have never been higher. The nations that succeed in balancing technological advancement with ethical leadership and resilience will determine whether the emerging international order moves toward stability and cooperation or spirals into renewed rivalry and conflict. The battleground for global leadership is now centered on digital sovereignty, resource control, and strategic resilience—the defining arenas of power in the digital age.