Rival Great Powers Race to Dominate AI, Cyber, and Dual-Use Technologies: Escalating Strategic Instability

The global landscape is undergoing a profound transformation as major powers accelerate their competition to lead in artificial intelligence (AI), artificial general intelligence (AGI), cyber operations, and dual-use technologies. This race not only reshapes military and technological dominance but also introduces unprecedented risks of miscalculation, escalation, and strategic instability. Recent developments underscore a rapidly evolving environment where geopolitical rivalry intertwines with technological innovation, demanding urgent attention from policymakers, military strategists, and international institutions.

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Intensifying Great-Power Competition: Strategic Foundations and Divergent Visions

At the heart of this new era lies a clash of visions. The United States champions innovation-driven growth and open standards in AI, emphasizing the importance of maintaining technological supremacy through private-sector-led advancements. Conversely, China adopts a state-led approach, focusing on strategic autonomy and rapid deployment of autonomous systems such as the Wing Loong 10B drones, which significantly enhance surveillance and strike capabilities. Beijing actively seeks to shape international standards in AI, space, and cybersecurity to influence global governance frameworks.

The European Union is also asserting its normative influence, advocating for ethical AI and stricter controls, reflecting a broader desire to balance technological progress with ethical considerations.

The emergence of AGI—computers with human-like intelligence—raises the stakes further. The "Geopolitics of AGI" warns that whoever masters AGI could dramatically shift power dynamics, as such systems could redefine global governance, military advantage, and economic influence. Leading nations are investing heavily; for example, the U.S. government's strategic investments aim to sustain its technological edge, even as restrictions on Chinese access to advanced technology tighten.

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Recent Key Developments: Clashes, Standards, and Strategic Moves

Pentagon–Anthropic AI Clash: Control of Military AI

A notable recent development is the clash between the Pentagon and Anthropic, a leading AI research firm. This confrontation highlights the shifting balance of war powers, with the U.S. military seeking strict control and verification over advanced AI systems to prevent unintended escalation. Anthropic's work on large language models and autonomous decision-making tools has become a focal point, illustrating the growing importance of controlling military AI—a domain where control, transparency, and governance could determine future conflict outcomes.

U.S.–China Nuclear Diplomacy and Arms Control Erosion

Amidst the AI race, renewed attention to nuclear diplomacy has emerged. The U.S. is engaged in delicate negotiations with China, aiming to stabilize strategic stability in the face of widening arms-control gaps. The erosion of treaties like New START exacerbates fears of an unchecked arms race, especially as both nations modernize their nuclear arsenals alongside dual-use technological advancements. Experts warn that miscalculations in nuclear and cyber domains could have catastrophic consequences.

The Political Economy of U.S.-China Strategy

Further complicating this landscape is the political economy shaping U.S. strategy toward China. U.S. policymakers and corporations alike are influenced by economic interests that prioritize technological dominance. This dynamic fuels restrictive measures against Chinese tech giants, aiming to prevent technological gains that could undermine U.S. strategic advantages, but also risks fueling technological decoupling and escalatory spirals.

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Cyber and Dual-Use Technologies: Merging Civilian and Military Domains

Cyber capabilities are now central to strategic competition. Major powers are engaged in cyberattacks targeting critical infrastructure, with the potential to disrupt economies or disable military systems. China's evolving cyber strategy emphasizes espionage, infrastructure resilience, and offensive cyber capabilities, contributing to a complex battleground where attribution remains difficult.

Simultaneously, dual-use technologies—systems that serve both civilian and military purposes—are proliferating rapidly. Autonomous drones, AI-enabled cyber tools, and space-based sensors exemplify this trend. These systems accelerate military modernization but also raise proliferation risks; unauthorized use or accidents could trigger conflicts. The "Emerging Dual-Use Technologies" report emphasizes that these systems complicate arms control efforts and verification, especially as norms and treaties lag behind technological capabilities.

Militarization of Space

The space domain remains a critical frontier. China and Russia are expanding their anti-satellite systems and space-based sensors, increasing strategic instability. The proliferation of space-based dual-use assets—such as reconnaissance satellites and missile warning systems—heightens fears of miscalculations or accidental conflicts in orbit, where attribution is challenging.

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Strategic Implications and the Path Forward

The convergence of AI, cyber, space, and dual-use technologies has created a highly volatile environment. The risk of miscalculation or accidental escalation is heightened, especially in the absence of comprehensive international governance. The Paris AI Summit and similar initiatives signal awareness of the need for norms, standards, and frameworks to prevent destabilization.

However, current efforts are insufficient. The lack of binding international agreements on AI arms control and dual-use proliferation increases the risk of an AI arms race. Experts warn that verification and transparency mechanisms are urgently needed to prevent unchecked modernization efforts. For example, recent discussions reveal that control over military AI—as exemplified in the Pentagon-Anthropic clash—is critical for avoiding unintended conflicts.

Opportunities for Diplomacy

As UN Secretary-General António Guterres recently emphasized, "The world needs a renewed security architecture capable of adapting to chaos and change." Building such a framework requires multilateral cooperation to establish norms, verification mechanisms, and arms control agreements specifically addressing dual-use technologies. These efforts could mitigate risks, prevent escalation, and foster stability.

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Current Status and Implications

The race among the world's leading powers to dominate AI, AGI, and dual-use systems remains intensely competitive and highly risky. While technological advancements promise economic and strategic gains, they also amplify dangers of miscalculation, escalation, and destabilization. As new developments continue to unfold—such as the Pentagon-Anthropic AI control disputes and ongoing nuclear diplomacy—the international community faces an urgent need to adopt comprehensive, verifiable, and enforceable norms.

In sum, the evolving landscape underscores that technological supremacy is now inseparable from strategic stability. Effective diplomacy, responsible innovation, and robust norms will be essential to navigate this perilous frontier and avoid catastrophic conflicts in an increasingly interconnected and technologically driven world.