How US, China, and other powers adapt national security strategies under growing risk

Adapting National Security Strategies in a Multipolar World of Rising Risks

As global tensions escalate and the strategic landscape shifts, the United States, China, and other major powers are recalibrating their national security approaches to navigate an increasingly uncertain environment. Key developments—including renewed great-power competition, the expiration of arms control treaties like New START, and the growing prominence of international security conferences—highlight a period of profound transformation in global security dynamics.

US–China Competition and Global Security Dynamics

The competition between the United States and China remains a central feature of the current geopolitical landscape. The recent "Two Systems, One Decade" analysis underscores how this rivalry extends beyond traditional military and economic spheres into technological dominance, influence operations, and strategic partnerships. China’s pivot into the Middle East, supported by diplomatic backing, technology transfers, and economic investments, exemplifies its efforts to extend influence and challenge U.S. dominance. As highlighted in the "Digital titans at war" article, innovation—particularly in digital technology—has become a vital arena for this competition, impacting military capabilities and international power balances.

This rivalry influences regional security architectures, especially in volatile areas like the Middle East, where Iran’s military assertiveness and external support from China and Russia complicate efforts at de-escalation. Beijing’s support for Iran’s missile and drone programs, combined with Russia’s military cooperation, bolster Iran’s capabilities and regional posture, elevating risks of miscalculation and conflict.

The Expiry of Key Arms Control Agreements and Strategic Stability

Another critical aspect of adapting security strategies is the expiration of arms control treaties such as New START. As discussed in "Good to Know: As New START expires, what's next?", this development raises concerns about an arms race among major powers, potentially destabilizing strategic balances. Without formal limits on nuclear arsenals, nations may feel emboldened to expand or modernize their weapons, increasing the risk of miscommunications and unintended escalation.

The broader context of great-power competition, as outlined in "The 2025 National Security Strategy", emphasizes a shift toward proactive deterrence and strategic stability. The U.S., in particular, is seeking to strengthen alliances with regional partners—such as Israel and Gulf Cooperation Council states—to contain Chinese influence and counterbalance threats from Iran and Russia.

International Security Forums and Diplomatic Engagement

Global security conferences like the Munich Security Conference have become vital venues for dialogue amid heightened tensions. The "From the halls of the Munich Security Conference" article notes increased energy and action-oriented discussions among Europeans, Americans, and allies to address shared threats. These forums serve as platforms for coordinating strategies, reinforcing deterrence, and exploring confidence-building measures to prevent miscalculations.

Shifts in US National Security Strategy and Military Effectiveness

The United States is also adapting its national security strategy to confront these evolving challenges. The "Late-Phase Failure and the Erosion of Military Effectiveness in Prolonged Conflict" review highlights that extended conflicts and prolonged engagements have strained military capabilities, necessitating reforms in force structure, technology, and strategic planning. The 2025 National Security Strategy marks a paradigm shift toward greater emphasis on crisis management, regional alliances, and technological innovation to maintain military effectiveness and strategic advantage.

Implications for Global Security and Energy Markets

The convergence of these developments—rising regional tensions, external support for Iran, and the breakdown of arms control—creates a “perfect storm” with potentially catastrophic consequences:

• Energy Security: The Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime chokepoint, remains a geopolitical flashpoint. Iran’s military demonstrations, explicit warnings, and increased naval presence threaten maritime security. Any escalation—be it a blockade or accidental clash—could disrupt global oil supplies, triggering economic turmoil.
• Regional Stability: Proxy conflicts in Syria, Yemen, Iraq, and Lebanon, combined with intra-Gulf rivalries, heighten the risk of wider conflict involving multiple actors.
• Global Security: The possibility of miscalculations, misunderstandings, or accidental clashes at sea or on borders could ignite broader conflicts, with ripple effects across international systems.

Conclusion

In this era of growing risks, the adaptation of national security strategies by major powers is critical. The US is emphasizing deterrence, alliance-building, and technological innovation, while China and Russia bolster their regional influence through military cooperation and strategic investments. Diplomatic engagement at international forums remains essential to manage tensions and prevent escalation.

Ultimately, the evolving security landscape demands vigilance, strategic foresight, and sustained dialogue to prevent conflicts from spiraling into full-scale crises. As the international community navigates these complex challenges, prioritizing de-escalation and confidence-building measures will be vital to preserving global stability in an increasingly multipolar world.