Artificial intelligence as a domain of strategic competition among major powers

The evolving landscape of artificial intelligence (AI) has become a central arena of strategic competition among major global powers, notably the United States, China, and the European Union. This contest is shaping not only technological innovation but also geopolitical influence, security paradigms, and international norms.

AI and AGI Initiatives Among Major Powers

United States: The U.S. maintains its leadership in AI research and development through a combination of private sector innovation and government support. Initiatives such as the recent focus on autonomous systems and strategic defense AI aim to bolster military capabilities. The U.S. government is increasingly emphasizing the development of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), viewing it as a transformative technology that could redefine global power dynamics.

China: China pursues a comprehensive strategy to achieve self-reliance in AI and semiconductors, exemplified by its "Made in China 2025" plan. Significant investments are directed toward AI-enabled military systems, such as autonomous drones like the Wing Loong 10B, which incorporate advanced AI to perform complex tasks autonomously. China's focus extends to resource-expanding mining projects across Africa and other regions to secure critical minerals necessary for AI hardware, reinforcing its goal of technological independence.

European Union: The EU positions itself as a normative leader in establishing ethical standards for AI, cybersecurity, and digital governance. Its European Chips Act and regulatory frameworks aim to foster indigenous AI innovation and supply chain resilience. Europe’s approach emphasizes trustworthy AI, privacy, and security—elements intended to shape international standards and offer an alternative to the more permissive models of the U.S. and China.

How AI is Reshaping Intelligence, Security, and Geopolitical Influence

AI technology is fundamentally transforming military strategy and intelligence operations. Autonomous systems, cyber capabilities, and AI-driven data analysis are redefining how nations gather, interpret, and act on information.

• Military Innovation: Examples include China’s Wing Loong 10B drone, which demonstrates AI-enabled autonomous combat capabilities, and U.S. efforts to incorporate AI into Special Operations Forces to enhance strategic agility.
• Cybersecurity and Cyber Warfare: Increasingly sophisticated AI-driven cyber threats pose risks of escalation, requiring international norms and robust defenses to prevent destabilization.
• Geopolitical Influence: Control over critical resources—such as rare earth elements and semiconductors—is crucial. China’s dominance in rare earth production provides leverage, prompting the U.S. and Europe to pursue diversification and local production strategies, exemplified by the European Chips Act.

International Norms and Standards: Europe is actively shaping global AI governance through its emphasis on privacy, ethics, and security, contrasting with U.S. and Chinese approaches. This normative leadership aims to set international standards that promote trustworthy AI and cybersecurity, thereby extending its influence in the digital domain.

The Broader Geopolitical Context

Strategic regions such as the Indo-Pacific and Arctic are becoming critical frontlines:

• Indo-Pacific: Countries like India and Japan are bolstering maritime security and resource access. India is investing to secure supply chains for rare earths and lithium, countering Chinese influence.
• Arctic: Melting ice opens new shipping lanes and access to untapped minerals. Major powers, including the U.S., Russia, and Canada, are investing in military and resource exploration efforts, recognizing the Arctic’s strategic importance.

The Future of AI in Global Power Dynamics

From 2024 to 2026, the race to lead in AI innovation, control critical supply chains, and set international norms will be pivotal. Success hinges on a nation's ability to:

• Advance technological innovation, especially in AGI and autonomous systems.
• Secure critical resources such as semiconductors and rare earth minerals.
• Shape global standards for AI ethics, cybersecurity, and digital governance.

Articles such as "The Geopolitics of AGI" and "Great power competition for AI leadership" highlight the importance of these developments. For example, the rise of AI-enabled military hardware like China’s Wing Loong 10B underscores how AI is not only a technological breakthrough but also a new domain of strategic leverage.

Conclusion

The strategic competition over AI is redefining global influence, security, and norms. Major powers are investing heavily in AI capabilities and resource security while attempting to shape international standards that favor their interests. Europe's push for ethical AI governance and digital sovereignty signals a desire to carve out a normative space amid this rivalry.

As nations navigate this complex landscape, the ability to innovate, control critical resources, and lead in setting global standards will determine the future balance of power. While competition intensifies, fostering multilateral cooperation remains essential to ensure that technological progress promotes peaceful development rather than conflict escalation.