How AI and Advanced Tech Are Reshaping Global Power and Security in 2024–26

The geopolitical landscape of 2024 and beyond is entering a new epoch where technological mastery, resource control, and strategic resilience define national power more than traditional military might alone. Rapid advancements in artificial intelligence (AI), breakthroughs in cutting-edge technologies, and the strategic competition over vital resources are fundamentally reshaping alliances, regional conflicts, and the very fabric of global stability. In this environment, nations are forging ahead to secure digital sovereignty and critical minerals, positioning themselves for dominance in a world driven by innovation and resource scarcity.

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The Core of Modern Power: Technological Sovereignty

At the heart of current global shifts is technological sovereignty—the pursuit of autonomous control over sectors such as AI, semiconductors, cloud infrastructure, and essential minerals like lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements. This pursuit is driven by the understanding that control over digital infrastructure and critical resources is vital for economic resilience, military strength, and international influence.

• Digital infrastructure enables nations to project power, shape global standards, and defend against cyber threats.
• Access to critical minerals underpins the future of AI hardware, renewable energy, and electric vehicles, making resource-rich regions like Africa, Greenland, and parts of South America focal points of strategic competition.

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Major Actors and Recent Developments

United States: Innovation and Supply Chain Fortification

The U.S. continues to reinforce its technological dominance through substantial policy initiatives like the CHIPS and Science Act, which has committed over $50 billion to boost domestic semiconductor manufacturing and AI research. This move aims to:

• Insulate the U.S. economy from supply chain vulnerabilities.
• Counter China’s rapid technological rise through targeted export controls, especially on advanced AI chips and systems.

Additionally, the U.S. emphasizes critical minerals and clean tech to reduce dependence on foreign sources, ensuring strategic independence in supply chains critical for military and economic power.

European Union: Norms and Digital Self-Reliance

The EU is positioning itself as a normative leader in AI ethics, data privacy, and digital regulation. Its Digital Sovereignty Strategy aims to build a self-reliant digital ecosystem, balancing technological development with strict norms for AI safety and cybersecurity.

• By shaping international standards, the EU seeks to influence the normative framework governing emerging technologies.
• This approach fosters trustworthy innovation and responsible AI deployment globally.

China: Resource Expansion and Maritime Strategy

China’s influence remains multifaceted:

• It maintains an extensive resource acquisition footprint in Africa, operating large-scale mining projects across the Democratic Republic of Congo, Guinea, and Zimbabwe, often coupled with infrastructure investments and long-term resource agreements.
• In the Indo-Pacific, China’s "String of Pearls" strategy involves building and securing maritime supply routes and strategic ports, exemplified by naval deployments near the Philippines, Australia, and in the South China Sea. These efforts aim to dominate regional sea lanes and control chokepoints vital for energy and trade.

India and Japan: Regional Autonomy and Defense Moves

India is increasingly focused on strategic autonomy:

• It seeks to secure supply chains for lithium, cobalt, and rare earths—elements critical for AI hardware and energy transitions.
• The Great Nicobar Project exemplifies India’s effort to project power into the Indian Ocean, countering Chinese influence ("How India Is Quietly Countering China at Sea").

Japan has taken assertive steps to bolster regional defense:

• It plans to arm Yonaguni Island near Taiwan with Type-03 Chū-SAM missiles, provoking strategic considerations for China and signaling a shift toward more assertive regional defense ("Japan To Arm Yonaguni Island Near Taiwan"). This move underscores Japan's commitment to maritime security amid rising tensions.

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Strategic Frontiers and Flashpoints

Africa: The New Resource Battleground

In 2024–26, Africa remains central to U.S.–China competition:

• China continues to leverage infrastructure deals and resource extraction projects, cementing influence in resource-rich nations.
• The U.S. counters through initiatives like the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), aiming to diversify supply chains and foster resilient, domestically sourced minerals industries.

Indo-Pacific and Maritime Security

The Indo-Pacific hosts heightened military and strategic activity:

• India’s Great Nicobar Project enhances power projection in the Indian Ocean, challenging Chinese ambitions ("How India Is Quietly Countering China at Sea").
• China’s naval deployments off Australia and near Taiwan demonstrate efforts to secure sea lanes and assert regional dominance ("China’s Warships Off Australia").

Arctic and Greenland: The New Frontier

Melting ice has opened new strategic opportunities:

• Greenland is emerging as a critical hub for missile defense, shipping routes, and access to untapped oil, gas, and minerals ("The Arctic Front: Greenland’s Role in U.S. Deterrence and Missile Defense").
• Russia, Canada, and the U.S. are investing heavily in military infrastructure and research stations, recognizing the Arctic’s strategic importance amid environmental change and resource competition.

Regional Tensions: The Chagos Islands and Beyond

Recent developments surrounding the Chagos archipelago highlight ongoing security tensions:

• Iran’s recent agreement concerning the islands, rich in resources and of strategic military value, signals shifting regional influence ("Strange Developments in the Chagos Island Saga").
• Such developments threaten to reshape maritime security dynamics in the Indian Ocean, complicating U.S. and allied interests.

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Military Innovation and Doctrine

The integration of AI and autonomous systems into military arsenals is transforming warfare paradigms:

• China’s Wing Loong 10B drone exemplifies AI-enabled autonomous weapons, complicating deterrence and escalation ("China's Wing Loong 10B Drone").
• The U.S. is reassessing its Special Operations Forces (SOF) mission set, emphasizing offensive, adaptive strategies suited for the era of strategic competition ("Going on the Offensive: Rethinking US SOF’s Mission Set").

Rethinking U.S. Strategic Posture

The 2025 National Security Strategy underscores a return to assertive competition, emphasizing resource dominance, technological leadership, and military readiness. Key elements include:

• Rethought SOF doctrines to better enable preemptive and offensive operations.
• Focus on supply chain resilience and cyber-physical infrastructure protection.

The Report to Congress on Yemen and Red Sea Security details ongoing threats from Iran-backed Houthis, who launched numerous attacks on international shipping ("USNI News"). These hostilities threaten global trade routes and regional stability.

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Norms and Multilateral Initiatives

International efforts—like the SIPRI arms control and cyber norms initiatives—are crucial to preventing destabilizing escalation:

• The Munich Security Conference emphasizes multilateral cooperation in AI, cyber security, and resource governance.
• The U.S. and allies are forging partnerships, such as the US–Israel collaboration on quantum computing and cyber capabilities, aiming to counter Chinese technological advances ("US–Israel Strategic Partnership").

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Current Status and Future Outlook

The competition over digital sovereignty, critical minerals, and strategic infrastructure is accelerating:

• The U.S. is recalibrating its approach toward China, emphasizing assertive policies and resource security—sometimes described as a "Trump 2.0" approach.
• Major resource projects, infrastructural investments, and military deployments are intensifying, especially in the Arctic, Indo-Pacific, and Africa.
• Diplomatic and normative efforts are shaping the rules of emerging domains, aiming to manage risks and foster cooperation.

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Implications and Challenges

This era of intertwined technological mastery and resource competition presents both opportunities and risks:

• Managing regional conflicts over Arctic sovereignty, maritime law, and resource-rich zones will be vital.
• Ensuring supply chain resilience against disruptions remains a top priority.
• Developing international norms for AI and cyber stability is essential to prevent escalation and support global stability.

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Conclusion

As 2024 unfolds, it’s clear that power is increasingly defined by mastery over AI, control of critical minerals, and resilience of infrastructure. The contest spans digital, maritime, and frontier regions, making the future of global security more interconnected and contested than ever.

The choices made today—whether through diplomacy, technological innovation, or strategic investments—will shape whether the emerging international order advances toward cooperative stability or slides into a renewed Cold War of escalating rivalry.

In this age of advanced technology and resource competition, the true battleground for global leadership remains:

Digital sovereignty, resource dominance, and strategic resilience.

Nations capable of innovating, adapting, and shaping the normative framework for emerging domains will lead the new global order—either through cooperative governance or strategic dominance. The stakes have never been higher, and the world’s future hinges on navigating this complex, high-stakes landscape with vigilance and vision.