Economy: Fed independence battle, inflation, consumer confidence collapse, safety net cuts, GDP revision

GDP revised down to 1.6%, PCE at 3.8% — stagflation signals. Consumer confidence at multiyear low; 2/3 of Americans cutting spending. Fed independence battle: Kevin Warsh sworn Fed Chair (5/21) amid Trump rate cut pressure; Powell warns against politicization. Warsh pushes trimmed mean inflation (2.3% vs 3.3% core PCE) to reshape rate debate. Core PCE vs CPI wedge (3.3% vs 2.8%) complicates rate cut path. Mortgage rates hit 9-month high of 6.65%, applications down 8.5%. Manufacturing surged to four-year high in May (ISM), but Prices Index at 82.1% signals war-driven cost pressures. Services PMI at 54.5, input prices at 71.3—reinforcing stagflation. At least 3.5 million lost food stamp access; new Medicaid work requirements unveiled. New SSI/SNAP rule could cut benefits for 400k low-income Americans. New tariff plan: White House floats 10-12.5% tariffs on 60 allies via forced labor probe (Section 301), sidestepping SCOTUS limits; $129B repayment from SCOTUS ruling. Trump plans to appeal order allowing all importers to seek refunds, limiting to those who sued. USTR defends tariffs using S. Korea steel case. Iran war has cost US households $450 so far; gas $4.49. Consumer savings buffer depleted; record auto and credit card delinquencies. Bessent runs briefing pushing tax cuts and energy dominance. Hoover conference on central bank independence adds academic context. Bipartisan housing bill (21st Century ROAD to Housing Act) to curb institutional investors and boost homeownership—new support from Virginia lawmakers. Oklahoma minimum wage ballot measure to $15. Dr. Oz briefed on Medicare/Medicaid. New analysis links immigration enforcement to housing price drops (2.4% YoY decline). Trump made major coal industry announcement at White House, invoking Defense Production Act for $700M coal push, signaling energy policy focus. Hassett publicly urged Fed not to raise rates in June, adding to White House pressure on monetary policy. New tax deduction for seniors ($6k/$12k) from OBB bill. Warnock tore into Bessent over Trump's economic record in heated hearing. Brookings analysis shows federal debt path worse than reported; under realistic interest rates, debt could reach 303-379% of GDP, raising questions about fiscal sustainability. Medicaid work requirements rule released; states have until Jan 2027 to implement. Congress debates new $25 minimum wage bill (phased in by 2031/2038, includes tipped workers and disability), though passage odds steep. Trump publicly says he won't influence Warsh on rates, a notable shift from past pressure. Market now pricing a rate hike to 4% by year-end; AI productivity uncertainty adds to Fed debate. New Brookings analysis details Trump's shift from rules-based to discretionary tariff policy, with major implications for trade and economic statecraft. New: Sen. Cassidy calls on Congress and Trump to address healthcare costs, linking to credit card debt and business hiring, endorsing idea of giving money to families instead of insurers. New: Federal student loan changes effective July 1: phase-out of income-driven plans, new RAP plan. Relevant to voters with loans. New: Inflation above 4% driven by rising energy prices, challenging administration's economic narrative and adding to voter cost-of-living concerns. New: Fed resisting rate hikes despite market pricing 70% chance of 25bp hike this year; challenges narrative of further tightening. New: Trump has made billions in second term while Americans struggle with rising costs—potent political narrative for midterms. New today: House Financial Services hearing on Fed as Warsh starts term, with Ray Dalio testimony on debt and AI bubbles. Social Security Trustees Report 2026 frames solvable problems, adding to fiscal debate. Congress acknowledges Social Security crisis with bipartisan solvency bill (Rep. Cole). Medicaid/Medicare cuts from One Big Beautiful Bill Act advance, affecting millions. New from today's reading: Fed may have to hike by September if inflation doesn't cool, per Evercore ISI analyst; new chair Warsh signals potential hike, adding hawkish twist to rate debate.