Uranium supply, spot volatility and fuel chain
Key Questions
What is the current uranium spot and term price?
Spot uranium is around $88.50/lb with term at $94/lb amid a structural deficit of 22M lb. Kazatomprom cut guidance while Cameco restarted Cigar Lake.
What risks affect US uranium supply?
US import dependency is projected at 84% by 2027, with a Section 232 report due that could trigger restrictions. McClean Lake acid plant failure adds near-term volatility.
What is the uranium price outlook for 2026?
Base case is $105/lb with bull case at $145/lb, driven by SMR demand growth. Sprott continues physical buying and uranium stocks are up ~40% YTD.
Spot ~$88.50, term ~$94; structural deficit 22M lb. Kazatomprom cutting guidance, McClean Lake acid plant failure. Cameco restarted Cigar Lake. UEC accelerating ISR, enCore on track. BofA doubles down on uranium as top conviction. US import dependency projected at 84% by 2027. Section 232 report due this month could trigger import restrictions. Saudi 123 Agreement originally with enrichment rights could tighten supply, but Trump has now tied the deal to Israel normalization and removed enrichment provisions, altering supply dynamics. India's Meghalaya state blocked uranium extraction. Sprott continues buying physical uranium. New uranium price outlook (2026) provides base case $105/lb, bull case $145/lb. Uranium stocks up ~40% YTD. Wyoming's uranium reserves highlighted. New: DOE launched a consortium and '3 by 33' campaign to grow nuclear fuel cycle, with a 60-day sprint model, directly addressing fuel supply bottleneck for advanced reactors.