Uranium supply, spot volatility and fuel chain
Key Questions
What are the current uranium spot and term prices?
Spot uranium is around $85 per pound with term prices recently at $94 and an all-time high of $97. These levels reflect ongoing market strength amid supply constraints.
What is the size of the structural uranium supply deficit?
The market faces a structural deficit of approximately 30 million pounds. This gap is widening due to production decisions and rising demand.
Why did Kazatomprom reset its uranium production?
Kazatomprom deliberately cut 8 million pounds of output to prioritize value over volume. This signals a permanent strategic shift that could support a $200 per pound floor.
What did Cameco report for Q2 2026 production at McArthur River?
Cameco achieved record production of 4.1 million pounds with a realized price of $78.50 versus spot at $122. Legacy contracts are set to roll off by 2027, enabling realized prices to align closer to spot.
What progress has Centrus made on HALEU production?
Centrus completed 1,900 kg of HALEU ahead of schedule and signed a $1.07 billion DOE contract for commercial production by 2029. This supports Western efforts to rebuild fuel supply chains.
How is Urenco expanding its uranium enrichment capacity?
Urenco USA is adding 700,000 SWU of capacity and plans a 27 MT per year HALEU plant in the UK by 2031. These steps bolster Western fuel independence.
What is the significance of Russia halting uranium exports to the US?
The halt exacerbates supply pressures in the Western market and highlights geopolitical risks in the fuel chain. It reinforces the need for alternative sources.
What does the widening spot versus term spread indicate?
The spread confirms a structural supply crisis as utilities secure long-term contracts at premiums. It underscores the mismatch between immediate availability and future needs.
Spot ~$85, term $94 (recent) / $97 all-time high; structural deficit ~30 Mlb. Major supply shock: Kazatomprom's deliberate 8Mlb production reset signals permanent shift to 'value over volume,' making $200/lb floor plausible. Cameco record Q2 2026 production at McArthur River (4.1M lbs), realized price $78.50 vs spot $122, highlighting contract pricing lag; legacy contracts rolling off by 2027 will cause realized prices to catch up to spot, a key re-pricing event. Western supply rebuild: Centrus completed 1,900 kg HALEU ahead of schedule, signed $1.07B DOE contract to commercial production by 2029; Urenco USA adding 700k SWU capacity, building 27 MT/yr HALEU plant in UK by 2031. NexGen's Saskatchewan window, DOE HALEU milestones, idle ISR capacity of 8.8M lbs. Russia halts uranium exports to US. Widening spot vs. term spread confirms structural supply crisis.